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There are already hints of Trump backing down from his 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico after tariffs on cars from the two countries were delayed by one month, they note. There could be an ebb and flow of escalation and de-escalation as Trump uses some of his tariffs as a negotiation tool, they say. However, the history of Trump's first term suggests that he is willing to escalate trade conflicts despite market weakness and volatility, the analysts note, adding that his actions so far make Nomura skeptical of a rapid de-escalation. 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