Ignoring the stock price of a company, what are the underlying trends that tell us a business is past the growth phase? More often than not, we'll see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining amount of capital employed. Trends like this ultimately mean the business is reducing its investments and also earning less on what it has invested. On that note, looking into Flight Centre Travel Group (ASX:FLT), we weren't too upbeat about how things were going.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Flight Centre Travel Group is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.12 = AU$245m ÷ (AU$3.9b - AU$1.8b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

So, Flight Centre Travel Group has an ROCE of 12%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Hospitality industry average of 9.2% it's much better.

See our latest analysis for Flight Centre Travel Group

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Flight Centre Travel Group compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Flight Centre Travel Group for free.

How Are Returns Trending?

There is reason to be cautious about Flight Centre Travel Group, given the returns are trending downwards. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 15% that they were earning five years ago. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Flight Centre Travel Group becoming one if things continue as they have.

On a side note, Flight Centre Travel Group's current liabilities are still rather high at 46% of total assets. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. Ideally we'd like to see this reduce as that would mean fewer obligations bearing risks.

The Bottom Line

All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. Yet despite these concerning fundamentals, the stock has performed strongly with a 58% return over the last five years, so investors appear very optimistic. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.

On a final note, we've found 2 warning signs for Flight Centre Travel Group that we think you should be aware of.

While Flight Centre Travel Group isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.