Investors are feeling defeated after the market’s rough week—and that means a Friday bounce could be more than a one-day blip.
We should be used to this by now. The S&P 500 index has dropped 2.3% this week, for its fourth consecutive decline, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbed 3.1%. The damage would have been worse save for a Friday rally in all three indexes.
Even a little bit of good news couldn’t lift markets. The S&P 500 tried, but failed, to rally on Wednesday after the February consumer price index rose 2.8% from the previous year, down from January’s 3% reading. At first blush, weaker-than-expected inflation should allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again, helping to boost economic growth. Investors didn’t take the bait. A wave of selling emerged, and stocks once again finished in the red.
The problem emanates from President Donald Trump. Tariffs, which could push prices higher and reduce consumer spending, would be bad enough, but the uncertainty over the policy is causing even more consternation. The concern is showing up among small businesses—the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a second straight month in February. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell well below expectations and indicated that even Republicans were feeling less confident.
As were investors. This past week, bearish responses in the American Association of Individual Investors survey were just over 60%, near the highest level in over a year. It’s also one of the most pessimistic results in history, according to data from ClearBridge Investments, just 10 points below the record high of about 70% during the peak of the 2008-09 financial crisis.
Unless the global economy is in for such a rare disaster, the market can’t get much more pessimistic. History suggests as much: The S&P 500 goes on to gain 13.6% on average over the following 12 months after a reading as low as it is now.
In a market this volatile, stocks could still fall. Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist, warns that the S&P 500 could drop to roughly 5400, a major “support level.” But that’s only 3% below its current level, leaving plenty of opportunity for it to post a solid gain over the coming year.
That suggests that investors should start putting some cash to work in the market, while keeping some dry powder in hand in case the selling accelerates. We’ll have a better sense of things when trading begins on Monday. The past three weeks have followed the same pattern—the market drops to start the week, only to end it with a rally. If stocks can hold on to Friday’s gains as the new week begins, that could be a sign that the pain is over, at least in the short term.
We’ve always had a thing for happy Mondays.
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