Wall Street turns attention back to tariffs, AI risks after Powell offers few surprises

Yahoo Finance
21 Mar

The Federal Reserve provided relief to markets on Wednesday as the central bank continued to project a path for two interest rate cuts in 2025. But the one-day stock rally didn't hold on Thursday and Friday, reflecting the feeling among many market strategists that the main issues plaguing the stock market over the past month have remained largely unchanged.

22V Research president Dennis Debusschere told Yahoo Finance that now that markets are through the Fed meeting, the focus will shift back to President Trump's tariffs and the possibility of reciprocal duties.

And figuring out how any of those policy plans could impact corporate profits this year is "absolutely what the market's been struggling with" amid the S&P 500's (^GSPC) recent 10% decline, per Debusschere. This struggle was front and center on Friday too, as both Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX) stocks dropped after the companies warned that looming economic headwinds such as tariffs could weigh on profits this year.

The market's tariff concerns have many layers. There's the question of which companies will be impacted by tariffs. There's the question of which companies could be impacted by counter-tariffs. And then there are further questions on how any potential price increases in some industries could also raise prices for other products. Broadly, there are fears that the answers to all of these questions could weigh on consumer spending and economic activity as a whole.

Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

All of this has led to jerky market action as investors struggle to price in a moving target. As of now, the bulk of President Trump's tariff plans have been delayed until April 2. In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump described April 2 as "liberation day in America." 

But exactly what will happen remains an open question for markets. 

"Until we get to April 2, we're kind of sitting and waiting for some direction and for some clarity," Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz told Yahoo Finance. 

Markets are focused on President Donald Trump's tariff policy again now that the March Federal Reserve meeting is over. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo
Reuters / Reuters

Kantrowitz argued that policy uncertainty was the leading factor in the recent market sell-off, as that unknown has now clouded the outlook for the Federal Reserve and potentially for corporate earnings. Typically, Kantrowitz said, markets would want more clarity on the initial catalyst that sparked the sell-off before moving higher. 

"Usually, [when] the primary catalyst that stops becoming a problem, essentially, that allows the market to find its footing," Kantrowitz said. 

But the S&P 500's 10% fall into correction territory wasn't all about investors selling stocks that could see earnings impacts from tariffs. Largely the index has been weighed down by a rerating of the most popular trade of the past two years, with the "Magnificent Seven" stocks having their worst quarter compared to the S&P 500 since 2022.

Morningstar's chief US market strategist David Sekera described the recent market action as a "bear market in artificial intelligence stocks." Given large-cap tech's outsized position in the S&P 500, some strategists are concerned further downside in those stocks could send the S&P 500 into its own bear market. 

"A key reason we have been forecasting a slump in the S&P 500 in 2026 is an assumption that fading enthusiasm for AI would prompt a valuation-driven slide in the index then rather than in 2025," Capital Economics chief markets economist John Higgins wrote. "Accordingly, it is possible the bursting of the AI bubble is just happening sooner than we had envisaged." 

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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