U.S. stock futures fell again on Monday after Friday’s rally, as benchmark indices hovered around the correction zone. Futures of all four benchmark indices declined in premarket trading.
Investors will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on interest rates slated to be released on Wednesday this week. The meeting will begin on Tuesday and Chairman Jerome Powell will address a press conference on Wednesday afternoon.
February’s retail sales data will be released today before the market opens. President Donald Trump‘s tariff negotiations continue as traders wait for “reciprocal tariffs” which go into effect on April 2nd.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that the Trump administration is working to prevent a financial crisis caused by years of excessive government spending.
"I can guarantee we would have had a crisis if spending had continued at unsustainable levels," Bessent said on NBC's Meet the Press. "We are resetting and putting things on a sustainable path.”
The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.29%, while the two-year yield was at 4.01%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 99% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the March meeting.
Futures | Change (+/-) |
Nasdaq 100 | -0.48% |
S&P 500 | -0.49% |
Dow Jones | -0.49% |
Russell 2000 | -0.63% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, dropped in premarket on Monday. The SPY was down 0.39% to $560.64, and the QQQ also declined 0.41% to $477.70, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Cues From The Last Session
On Friday, Technology, energy, and financials led a Friday surge in U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 rising over 2%.
Big tech shares, particularly Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), rebounded strongly, though overall stocks, including the Dow and S&P 500, recorded weekly losses.
Conversely, consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, fell to its lowest point since November 2022.
As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 index was 8.27% down from its previous high, which followed a bounce from Thursday’s 10.18% drawdown. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 was 11.33% lower and Dow Jones was down 7.95% from its 52-week high as of Friday.
Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
Nasdaq Composite | 2.61% | 17,754.09 |
S&P 500 | 2.13% | 5,638.94 |
Dow Jones | 1.65% | 41,488.19 |
Russell 2000 | 2.53% | 2,044.10 |
Insights From Analysts
The CEO of Creative Planning, Peter Mallouk in an X post highlighted that over the last 75 years, the intra-year market drop has been 14% on average.
“Downside volatility is the price investors pay for long-term outperformance,” he added.
Over the last 75 years, the average intra-year market drop has been 14%. If you are overly stressed out about the current 10% drawdown, the stock market isn't for you. Downside volatility is the price investors pay for long-term outperformance. pic.twitter.com/dB995bwVkU
— Peter Mallouk (@PeterMallouk) March 16, 2025
Mallouk further reiterated that market pullbacks are common and a complete recovery is inevitable over time. “Stay calm and stick with your long-term plan,” he said.
Stock market pullbacks happen every year, and they all have one thing in common: a complete recovery with the passage of time. Stay calm and stick with your long-term plan. pic.twitter.com/fnHfoFUovd
— Peter Mallouk (@PeterMallouk) March 16, 2025
Ryan Detrick of Carson Research also highlighted the historical data and underlined this was the fastest period of correction for the S&P 500 after scaling a fresh high on Feb. 19. It just took the index 16 days to slip into the correction territory.
This was one of the fastest corrections ever.Here are all the times the S&P 500 went from an ATH to down 10% within a month.Higher 3 and 6 months later every time doesn't sound like the worst news. pic.twitter.com/y0mzaMhQo2
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 16, 2025
Additionally, Detrick underscored that the S&P 500 has slid into a correction zone for 12 times since 1950 without going into a bear market.
Do you think this goes into a bear market?Since 1950, I found 12 other times stocks corrected 10% from an all-time high and didn't go into a bear market.6 and 12 month later? Never lower. pic.twitter.com/vAu3GsY8wI
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 16, 2025
According to the Panic/Euphoria analysis model shared by Jay Kaeppel, the senior market analyst at SentimenTrader, the S&P 500's decline was still not flashing a buy signal. However, from this point, investors could “Start looking for a buy signal,” at the current levels.
Is this a "Buy" signal? IMO, no.Is this a "Start looking for a buy signal" signal? IMO, yes.Doesn't mean it will come soon or that things can't get worse as the first "dot" rarely marks the exact bottom (only in 2018). Still, the numbers are what they are. @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/6Xq1lk9kNj
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) March 14, 2025
See Also: How to Trade Futures
Upcoming Economic Data
Here’s what investors will keep an eye on this week:
Stocks In Focus:
Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 1.03% to hover around $67.60 per barrel.
The gold spot index was up by 0.28% to $2,990.85 per ounce. Its last record high was at $3,005.08 per ounce. The Dollar Index was unchanged at the 103.719 level.
Most Asian markets closed higher on Monday except China’s CSI 300 index. On the other hand, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, Australia's ASX 200, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and India's S&P BSE Sensex advanced. European markets were higher in trade.
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