There's been a major selloff in Urgent.ly Inc. (NASDAQ:ULY) shares in the week since it released its full-year report, with the stock down 49% to US$0.29. The statutory results were not great - while revenues of US$143m were in line with expectations,Urgent.ly lost US$3.28 a share in the process. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Urgent.ly

After the latest results, the consensus from Urgent.ly's lone analyst is for revenues of US$137.6m in 2025, which would reflect a discernible 3.7% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 79% to US$0.67. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$148.4m and US$0.53 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analyst has mixed opinions on Urgent.ly after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

The consensus price target fell 33% to US$1.00, with the analyst clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would also point out that the forecast 3.7% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 3.4% annually over the past three years By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 12% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Urgent.ly is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Urgent.ly. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analyst also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Urgent.ly. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for Urgent.ly going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Urgent.ly is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.