There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. However, after investigating Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Duke Energy, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.048 = US$7.9b ÷ (US$186b - US$19b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

Therefore, Duke Energy has an ROCE of 4.8%. On its own that's a low return on capital but it's in line with the industry's average returns of 4.9%.

See our latest analysis for Duke Energy

In the above chart we have measured Duke Energy's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Duke Energy for free.

The Trend Of ROCE

Things have been pretty stable at Duke Energy, with its capital employed and returns on that capital staying somewhat the same for the last five years. This tells us the company isn't reinvesting in itself, so it's plausible that it's past the growth phase. With that in mind, unless investment picks up again in the future, we wouldn't expect Duke Energy to be a multi-bagger going forward. That being the case, it makes sense that Duke Energy has been paying out 64% of its earnings to its shareholders. These mature businesses typically have reliable earnings and not many places to reinvest them, so the next best option is to put the earnings into shareholders pockets.

What We Can Learn From Duke Energy's ROCE

In a nutshell, Duke Energy has been trudging along with the same returns from the same amount of capital over the last five years. Yet to long term shareholders the stock has gifted them an incredible 115% return in the last five years, so the market appears to be rosy about its future. However, unless these underlying trends turn more positive, we wouldn't get our hopes up too high.

Duke Energy does have some risks, we noticed 3 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit concerning) we think you should know about.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.