Shareholders of Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKBA) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 19% to US$2.26 following its latest full-year results. Revenues were a bright spot, with US$160m in revenue arriving 6.0% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$0.33, some 7.6% below consensus predictions. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Akebia Therapeutics after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Akebia Therapeutics

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Akebia Therapeutics from three analysts is for revenues of US$193.8m in 2025. If met, it would imply a huge 21% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 15% from last year to US$0.25. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$180.2m and losses of US$0.16 per share in 2025. While this year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a regrettable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The average price target rose 9.3% to US$7.83, even thoughthe analysts have been updating their forecasts to show higher revenues and higher forecast losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Akebia Therapeutics at US$10.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$6.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Akebia Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Akebia Therapeutics is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 21% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 13% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 20% annually. So it looks like Akebia Therapeutics is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Akebia Therapeutics. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that Akebia Therapeutics will grow in line with the overall industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Akebia Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Akebia Therapeutics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Akebia Therapeutics (2 are potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.