Not sure when President Donald Trump's tariff strategy will push the S&P 500 into a bear market? It's already here for 40% of the S&P 500.

A staggering 206 stocks in the S&P 500, including Moderna (MRNA), Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and Celanese (CE) are already down 20% or more from their 52-week highs, says an Investor's Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSurge. A 20% drop or more from the highs is the unofficial definition of a bear market.

"The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariffs and retaliatory measures will disrupt global supply chains, leading to increased costs for final goods," said Satyam Panday, chief U.S. and Canada economist at S&P Global Ratings.

The S&P 500 Is Masking The Pain

If 40% of stocks are in a bear market already, why doesn't is feel like a bear market? Much of the pain isn't showing up in the indexes yet.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is off 7.5% this year, but only down 12.6% so far from its 52-week high. That's merely a correction. And the S&P 500 is off 8.6% from its high following a 4.4% drop this year.

But the pain under the surface is brutal. All of the Magnificent Seven stocks are down hard. Most are either in a bear market already or close to one.

What Should You Do With Tesla Stock?

Take Tesla for instance. Shares of the electric car maker are down 45% this year and 55% off their 52-week highs. Should you buy or sell Tesla stock now? The stock consolidated in January, pausing after a scorching hot fourth quarter where Tesla stock logged most of its 63% advance for 2024, especially after Trump's election win.

However, shares then dived 27.6% in February, beginning with a gap below the 50-day moving average. TSLA stock is about 40% below the Dec. 18 all-time high of 488.54.

What Should You Do With S&P 500 Stocks In Bear Markets

Moderna continues to be one of the S&P 500's top disasters. The vaccine maker's shares are down 79% from their high and off 14% just this year. That puts it deeper in a bear market than any other S&P 500 stock.

This isn't a stock to touch right now. Shares have an RS Rating of just 6 and are well off their 200-day moving average. Analysts think profit will fall 9% in 2025.

It's a similar situation at Super Micro Computer. Shares of the maker of AI systems are down 69.2% from their all-time high, despite still being up 21% this year. Analysts might be bullish on the stock, but the chart is ugly. The RS Rating is just 12 and the stock is still below the 200-day moving average. Here's how to know when to buy a stock. 

To be sure, smart investors make a watchlist during market turbulence. But this storm appears to only be starting.

S&P 500 Stocks Down Most From Highs

Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence, IBD

Follow Matt Krantz on X (Twitter) @mattkrantz

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