There's been a notable change in appetite for AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 12% to US$132. It looks like a pretty bad result, given that revenues fell 19% short of analyst estimates at US$168m, and the company reported a statutory loss of US$0.06 per share instead of the profit that the analysts had been forecasting. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for AeroVironment

After the latest results, the six analysts covering AeroVironment are now predicting revenues of US$933.9m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 26% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 211% to US$3.66. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$991.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.70 in 2026. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, that the consensus price target fell 10% to US$204following these changes. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on AeroVironment, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$240 and the most bearish at US$146 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of AeroVironment'shistorical trends, as the 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 18% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that AeroVironment is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple AeroVironment analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.