The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters

By Ron Bousso

HOUSTON, March 10 - Energy executives travelling to the U.S. oil capital of Houston for an annual gathering this week may have cheered President Donald Trump's return to the White House, but they are learning that you should be careful what you wish for.

This year's CERAWeek conference promised to be a show of force for the fossil fuel sector following the re-election of Trump, whose "drill, baby, drill" slogan resonated with oil and gas companies that felt frustrated by his predecessor Joe Biden's perceived animosity toward the industry.

Instead, the conference is set to be dominated by talk of Trump's tariffs, sanctions and aggressive drive to end the war in Ukraine, which have together created turmoil in financial markets and clouded the outlook for the global economy and energy prices.

Benchmark Brent crude prices have fallen to around $70 a barrel, compared with $87 a barrel at the start of last year's conference.

Lower energy prices were at the heart of Trump's election campaign, but if this price level is sustained over a long period of time, many companies will be forced to rethink investment plans and dividends, in particular U.S. shale drillers that are highly sensitive to oil prices, putting in question Trump's U.S. oil production aspirations.

The United States is already the world's top crude producer, pumping around 13.5 million barrels of oil per day following a surge in shale oil drilling since the start of the last decade. Growth is set to slow down in the coming years, with output forecast to reach 13.7 million bpd next year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

So if oil prices are any gauge of the likely mood, CERAWeek may be a gloomy event.

DISRUPTION

Trump's staunch support of the oil and gas industry has been widely welcomed by executives, in particular the removal of Biden's freeze on permitting for new LNG terminals and Trump’s promise to accelerate the federal permitting process to allow easier and quicker construction of pipelines, power generators and grids.

"We're seeing a more balanced conversation" with the new U.S. administration, Chevron CVX.N CEO Mike Wirth recently said. He nevertheless added he would prefer to see many of Trump's executive orders turn into legislation to foster longer-term stability.

But while Trump giveth, Trump also taketh away. The U.S. administration recently ended Chevron's production licence in Venezuela, which has been a key means for the company to recover billions of dollars in pending debt owed to it by Caracas.

And the Republican president continues to make disruption a signature of his administration, despite advice from energy execs.

Even before Trump took office, the CEO of Exxon Mobil XOM.N Darren Woods urged Trump not to pull out of the 2015 Paris climate accords, wary that slamming the brakes on decarbonization policies could undermine the top U.S. oil producer's multi-billion dollar investment in carbon capture and storage technologies.

It didn't matter. Trump quit the 2015 climate agreement on his first day in office.

Some of Trump's disruption has been greeted positively by many in the energy industry. In a string of executive orders signed during his first days in power, Trump declared a "national energy emergency," lifting a ban on oil and gas production in Alaska, halting support for electric vehicles, easing pollution regulation and restricting wind power development.

But there has been far less support for Trump's strong-handed economic policies. The announcement of a series of new U.S. tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico last week sparked a trade war with the United States' three largest trading partners.

While many of these tariffs have been delayed once again, the uncertainty created by this guessing game will weigh on investment activity. And fears of a sustained trade war could trigger changes in supply chains that will increase expense and reduce efficiency.

Finally, even for a sector that is used to dealing with geopolitical upheavals, the last few months have been breathtaking. And the startling series of events – from the Middle East to Ukraine – may possibly be a step too far for companies that yearn for regulatory and policy stability as they seek to make multi-billion-dollar investments in oil and gas projects that stretch over decades.

At last year's conference, CEOs railed against Biden's decision to pause approvals of new LNG projects, including Hess CEO John Hess who said U.S. policies should not "flip flop."

But such 'flip flops' now seem almost quaint. With Trump, energy companies will have to get used to operating in a roller coaster environment and, what may be even more uncomfortable, get used to having their advice go unheeded.

** The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. **

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(Writing by Ron Bousso; editing by David Evans)

((ron.bousso@thomsonreuters.com +447887626565))