By Adam Clark
The long-awaited flexible iPhone could soon arrive.
Apple could ship its first foldable smartphone next year, according to Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst for TF International Securities who closely monitors the company's supply chain.
Apple didn't immediately respond to a request for comment early on Thursday. It hasn't announced any foldable models, and typically doesn't discuss unannounced products.
According to Kuo, a foldable iPhone is currently set to arrive toward the end of 2026 and cost between $2,000 and $2,500. He expects shipments of 3 to 5 million units next year, potentially rising to 20 million units in 2027.
Kuo isn't the only who thinks the moment could be approaching. The Wall Street Journal reported last year that Apple executives were pushing to launch such a device in 2026.
Rumors about Apple developing a foldable device have been circulating for years, with the company being granted patents on such technology as far back as 2014. However, more than a decade later, the market for foldable phones is instead dominated by South Korea's Samsung Electronics and China's Huawei Technologies.
So why now? Well, sales of iPhones are likely to have dropped to 224 million units last year from 231 million in 2023, according to FactSet. That means the pressure is on to find a way to boost growth.
The company has a particular problem in China: Apple's iPhone shipments there fell 17% last year. That caused the company to drop to third place in market share in the world's second-largest economy, leapfrogged by Vivo and Huawei, according to Canalys.
A sense of the challenge Apple faces was on show at Mobile World Congress, the world's largest mobile and communications trade show, held in Barcelona this week.
Chinese smartphone makers Xiaomi, Honor, and Oppo all presented their flagship artificial-intelligence-powered phones at price points similar to the newest iPhones. Meanwhile, Huawei showed off what it claims is the world's first triple-folding phone which it recently launched on the global market. Although at a cost of about $3,789, it makes the reported price of the foldable iPhone look pretty reasonable.
Apple Intelligence -- the company's AI offering -- isn't available on devices purchased in mainland China: The company awaits regulatory approval for an AI partnership with Chinese e-commerce firm Alibaba. That's creating an opportunity for rivals. Honor said at Mobile World Congress that it intends to invest $10 billion over the next five years in developing AI for its devices.
It's not just in China that companies are hoping to make inroads. Xiaomi, Honor, and Oppo also showed off deeper integration of their hardware with Google's Gemini AI for non-Chinese markets at Mobile World Congress.
"Chinese smartphone-makers such as Honor have had access to some of Google's Gemini AI-powered features, but the U.S. search giant has tended to keep them at arm's length. However, things have changed, with Google now collaborating deeply with Honor to offer cutting-edge AI capabilities," wrote CCS Insight analyst Ben Wood in a research note.
Chinese smartphones generally don't make it to the U.S. Apple's main competition stateside is Samsung, which is also integrating Google AI into its devices, including the recently launched Galaxy S25 series.
"The AI features on the new Samsung devices in every measurable way have been superior in my opinion to what Apple Intelligence has brought out," said Daniel Newman, Futurum Group CEO and technology researcher. "But Apple has this incredibly loyal user base that is hard to break. And so, while I think they have been slow, Apple will get more than a handful of shakes at getting it right."
A foldable, AI-powered iPhone could be one such opportunity for Apple to inject some life into its smartphone sales.
Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com
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March 06, 2025 11:28 ET (16:28 GMT)
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