Moderna recently experienced a notable 10% price increase over the last week amidst significant legal and financial developments. Genevant Sciences and Arbutus Biopharma have expanded their patent litigation against Moderna internationally, targeting its lipid nanoparticle technology, which could impact products like Spikevax and mRESVIA. Against this challenging backdrop, the company has kept its earnings guidance unchanged, projecting annual revenue between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, despite a stark drop in its fourth-quarter 2024 results. These developments come as broader markets faced a 2.7% decline during the same period, driven by concerns over economic health and trade policies. Despite the downtrend witnessed in major indices, Moderna's share movement appears influenced by company-specific news rather than broader market dynamics, showcasing the potential impact of ongoing legal battles and financial forecasts on investor sentiment.

Unlock comprehensive insights into our analysis of Moderna stock here.

Over the past five years, Moderna's total return, including share price and dividends, achieved 53.81%. This return reflects several significant events and strategic decisions. The most impactful development was the rapid success of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, which witnessed massive demand during the pandemic. Starting in early 2021, regulatory approvals from entities like the FDA for emergency use spurred Moderna's prominence in the global vaccine market. By early 2025, however, the company faced setbacks, such as being removed from the NASDAQ-100 Index in December 2024 and significant legal challenges regarding its lipid nanoparticle technology used in vaccines.

While Moderna's revenue is expected to grow by 17.6% annually, the company did underperform in the last year, especially compared to a US market return of 11.1%. Despite these challenges, ongoing product development, including successful regulatory approvals in various regions for new vaccine formulations, indicates continued efforts to secure its market position amidst evolving competitive and legal landscapes.

• See how Moderna measures up with our analysis of its intrinsic value versus market price.
• Uncover the uncertainties that could impact Moderna's future growth—read our risk evaluation here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include NasdaqGS:MRNA.

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