Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON): A Bull Case Theory

Insider Monkey
08 Mar

We came across a bullish thesis on Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) on Twitter by RadnorCapital. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on AXON. Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON)'s share was trading at $499.31 as of March 6th. AXON’s trailing and forward P/E were 104.02 and 76.92 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Kbiros/Shutterstock.com

Axon Enterprise (AXON) surged ~13% post-market following an impressive Q4 and strong 2025 guidance. The company’s 2025 outlook implies ~25% revenue growth at the midpoint, but given Axon’s historical trend of guiding ~11-12% below actual growth, the final figure could be in the mid-30% range. This momentum follows a pattern of revenue doubling over the past two years and 2024 marking the third consecutive year of 30%+ growth. If Axon meets expectations, 2025 will be the fourth straight year achieving this milestone, reinforcing its status as a high-growth company with long-term compounding potential.

Growth is being driven by rapid international, federal, and corrections sector expansion. The company closed 10 "AI era" plan deals in Q4—just months after launching at IACP in October—showcasing strong customer enthusiasm. Drones and robotics have also doubled Axon’s total addressable market, with early signs of bookings supporting a bullish outlook. International momentum continues to build, with bookings up 50% quarter-over-quarter, following a 40% increase in Q3. Enterprise bookings tripled year-over-year, and Q4 saw the largest deal in company history with a major global logistics company. Management views enterprise, federal, and international markets as a ~$100 billion opportunity, with a record $10 billion in future contracted bookings providing strong revenue visibility for years to come.

Axon’s net revenue retention (NRR) of 123% highlights deepening customer penetration as the company continues to deliver mission-critical solutions. The 2025 EBITDA guidance targets a 25% margin, striking a balance between growth, investment, and profitability. Axon remains a “Rule of 50” company for four consecutive years, surpassing the already impressive “Rule of 40” benchmark. Capital expenditures are increasing slightly, with investments in Taser production and new product areas supporting long-term demand. CEO Rick Smith’s leadership continues to be a competitive advantage, and his recent comments on Arizona’s political climate highlight his proactive stance on broader business conditions. Axon’s latest earnings report reaffirms its strong execution and massive growth runway.

Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 64 hedge fund portfolios held AXON at the end of the third quarter which was 46 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of AXON as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AXON but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock.

Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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