National CineMedia Inc (NCMI) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Box Office Growth Amid ...

GuruFocus.com
07 Mar

Release Date: March 06, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

  • National CineMedia Inc (NASDAQ:NCMI) reported a 26% year-over-year increase in the total box office for Q4 2024, generating approximately $2.4 billion.
  • The company welcomed 25 new advertisers in Q4 2024, indicating a growing interest in cinema advertising.
  • NCMI's platinum advertising product saw significant growth, with revenue more than doubling year-over-year.
  • The company's NCMX data intelligence platform is playing an increasing role in driving measurable impact and value for advertising partners.
  • NCMI reported revenue of $86.3 million for Q4 2024, slightly exceeding their revenue guidance of $82 to $86 million.

Negative Points

  • National advertising revenues decreased to $69.2 million in Q4 2024 compared to $71.9 million in Q4 2023, driven by a 22% decrease in utilization.
  • Local and regional advertising revenue was $13.5 million in Q4 2024, down from $16.2 million in Q4 2023.
  • Total revenue for Q4 2024 decreased by 5% year-over-year, primarily due to an unfavorable mix of harder-to-monetize G and PG-rated movies.
  • The company expects softer performance in Q1 2025 compared to the prior year, driven by a weaker film slate and a slight decline in attendance.
  • NCMI's full-year 2024 revenue of $240.8 million was lower than the $259.8 million reported in 2023, largely due to lower attendance during the year.

Q & A Highlights

  • Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with NCMI.

Q: Can you provide more detail on the temporary nature of the advertising headwinds and what you expect in the second half of the year? A: Tom Lasinski, CEO, explained that while the first quarter is challenging due to external factors like tariffs and policy shifts, the second quarter is pacing well compared to last year. He expressed optimism for the second half, although specific details were not provided at this time.

Q: How have KPI-based ad sales supported advertiser retention and efforts to increase the client base? A: Tom Lasinski noted that about half of their business is supported through NCMX, which includes KPI-based advertising. This has been a significant focus, and they are pleased with the attention and retention from clients.

Q: What percentage of national advertisers have not returned to cinema advertising post-pandemic? A: Tom Lasinski mentioned that they would need to calculate the exact percentage but did not have the figure readily available during the call.

Q: What are your expectations for attendance growth in 2025 and 2026, and is higher attendance the primary driver of revenue growth? A: Tom Lasinski stated that attendance is the primary driver, with the quality of attendance being secondary. He feels aligned with industry forecasts and is optimistic about the recovery in attendance post-COVID and strike.

Q: How is advertiser sentiment compared to previous years, and when might this translate into higher media buys? A: Tom Lasinski indicated that advertiser sentiment is positive, with improvements in the macro environment and their business. He expects this to translate into higher media buys as the industry stabilizes.

Q: Does higher advertiser sentiment position you better for growth in the upfront season? A: Tom Lasinski believes they will perform well in the upfronts, given the industry's strong performance compared to linear and broadcast television. He anticipates a better upfront season than last year.

Q: What is the demand for advertising on premium screens, and how significant can this be in 2025? A: Tom Lasinski noted that there is strong demand for premium screens, particularly for their platinum inventory. This trend is expected to benefit them as advertisers show interest in these formats.

Q: What are your expectations for the local and regional advertising business in 2025 and 2026? A: Tom Lasinski expressed optimism for a comeback in local advertising, having reinvested in their sales team and allocated more resources to this area, expecting growth in the coming years.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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