The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2155 ET - Markets may have underestimated President Trump's determination to impose tariffs on China, Nomura analysts say in a research note. "Trump's seemingly soft stance on China over recent weeks was only tactical, with markets potentially underestimating his resolve to curb China and his intent on pursuing bolder measures in his second term," the analysts say. Trump could take more aggressive moves on China in the coming months as he is currently focused on domestic issues, border policies and a peace deal for Russia and Ukraine, they note. With Trump's 20% cumulative tariffs on Chinese goods, the average effective rate on Chinese imports rises to 33%, based on Nomura's estimates. However, China's response so far remains largely restrained, leaving room for potential negotiations, they add. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

2121 ET - Australian pollster Redbridge-Accent says the country's Labor government could face disaster in the coming federal election by losing up to eight seats in the southern state of Victoria alone. The polling suggests Labor's support has fallen sharply on a two-party preferred basis across the state, leaving a large number of marginal seats vulnerable to being lost to opposition parties. The Labor government currently has 77 electorates out of the 151 electorates in the country. The polling comes as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese indicates he is moving closer to calling the election, which must be held by May 17. A political party needs to secure at least 76 electorates to form the government. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

2103 ET - Indonesia's domestic car sales came in at 61,849 units in January, down 11.3% on year and marking the 19th consecutive month of decline in volume, says UOB Kay Hian analyst Stevanus Juanda. He expects weakness to persist until 1H and to likely improve in 2H. The brokerage remains overweight on the country's auto sector, anticipating a recovery in 2H. While Toyota remains the market leader in 2024 and in January, UOB KH notes that Chinese automaker BYD breaks into the top 10 in January. Among domestic names, Astra International is its top pick. The brokerage maintains a buy rating and a target price of IDR6,000.00 on the stock, which last closed at IDR4,530.00.(monica.gupta@wsj.com)

2045 ET - The Indonesian rupiah is likely seeing no signs of easing in headwinds, MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan says in a research report. "Tariff risks have returned to the fore following a period of calm," the senior currency analyst says. U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, together with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, will take effect Tuesday. "Indonesia's economy won't be immune to higher U.S. tariffs on China, given its rising export exposure to the Chinese market," Chan says. Also, there's greater fiscal uncertainty in Indonesia as President Prabowo shapes his economic policies, Chan adds. MUFG Bank raises its USD/IDR forecast for 2Q to 16,625.00 from 16,450.00 previously. USD/IDR is little changed at 16,585.00. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2029 ET - Asian currencies are mixed against the dollar in the morning session but may weaken amid rising trade tensions that typically undermine risk appetite. "The global trade war is intensifying with the U.S. set to impose higher tariffs on imports from China, Canada and Mexico on Tuesday," CBA's Global Economic & Markets Research team says in a note. Hence, the greenback will probably strengthen this week, the team says. However, the main risk to the view of a stronger U.S. dollar this week is if President Trump reverses or delays increases to the tariffs, the team adds. USD/KRW is little changed at 1,460.57; USD/SGD edges 0.2% lower to 1.3487; AUD/USD is up 0.2% at 0.6227. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2019 ET - Australian prime ministerial hopeful Peter Dutton has described Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky as a "modern day war hero" who deserves ongoing support, while adding he was disappointed by the confrontation between U.S. President Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office before the weekend. With a federal election set to be called in Australia, Dutton, the leader of the Liberal-National Coalition, could be leading the country within weeks. Dutton told reporters that European nations need to be more independent in terms of funding their own defense, adding that while the U.S. has an incredibly important role to play internationally, "it can't be everywhere at once," he added. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1926 ET - Australia's economy likely grew 0.4% in the December quarter, accelerating just a notch from the September quarter's 0.3% rise, Moody's Analytics says in a note. It forecasts the full-year growth at 1%. The economy likely ended 2024 in a solid position, with inflation charging lower and unemployment holding at enviable lows, it says. Consumers also made the most of holiday sales, driving up household spending. Despite those positives, business investment and new dwelling construction were likely subdued, it adds. The GDP data are due Wednesday. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

1919 ET - Japanese stocks are higher following Friday's selloffs and as concerns about borrowing costs have ebbed for now. Financial and auto stocks are leading the gains. Nomura Holdings is up 3.2% and Toyota Motor is 2.2% higher. USD/JPY is at 150.67, up from 150.03 as of Friday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on any developments over U.S. trade and foreign policies and their implications for Japanese businesses. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 0.8% at 37459.81, following the index's biggest percentage drop in five months on Friday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

1912 ET - Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says it's an "easy choice" for the country to signal its ongoing support for Ukraine. Albanese's comments to a cabinet meeting Monday come after Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump clashed in front of the media over the question of Ukraine's future. Geopolitics and trade tensions with the U.S are set to feature heavily in Australia's coming election campaign, with some chance the poll will be called this week. ( james.glynn@wsj.com ; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1909 ET - JGB futures fall in early Tokyo trade on a likely technical correction following last Friday's price rally in futures and cash bonds. The risk-off sentiment prevailing in the domestic market at the end of last week is expected to reverse, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities fixed income strategists say in a research report. A weak performance is anticipated, the strategists say. The 10-year JGB auction scheduled for Tuesday may also weigh on the market, they add. JGB 10-year futures are 0.21 yen lower at 139.56 yen. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1848 ET - The Nikkei Stock Average may rise after the index posted the biggest percentage drop in five months on Friday and as concerns about borrowing costs have eased for now. Nikkei futures are up 1.6% at 37725 on the SGX. USD/JPY is at 150.80, up from 150.03 as of Friday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on any developments over U.S. trade and foreign policies and their implications for Japanese businesses. On Friday, the Nikkei Stock Average dropped 2.9% to 37155.50, marking the biggest percentage drop since Sept. 30, amid concerns about U.S. tariffs. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)

1834 ET - Former Gov. of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, has come off the sidelines of public debate to once again highlight the country's poor productivity performance, slamming Canberra for a lack of will to take hard reform decisions. In an interview with The Australian newspaper, Lowe says elevated interest rates aren't the root cause of rising living costs, instead, he points to weak productivity and falling living standards. The comments could help frame a coming election campaign, with both sides of politics responsible for the years of productivity malaise. Political commentators suggest the election, due by May 17, could be called as early as this week. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 02, 2025 21:55 ET (02:55 GMT)

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