Fitch Ratings maintained Macao's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at AA with a stable outlook, citing the territory's exceptionally robust public and external finances and controlled fiscal management.
However, a small economic base, heavy reliance on gaming tourism from mainland China, and policy shift risks from Beijing serve as rating limitations, Fitch said in a Tuesday release.
Macao's GDP will moderate to 6.9% in 2025 from 8.8% in 2024, supported by continued but slower gaming tourism rebound and infrastructure development, among other factors.
Macao's fiscal position remains robust, with substantial fiscal reserves and no government debt, while its external balance sheet is ample enough to cushion against external volatility, Fitch said.
Notable shifts in mainland China's sovereign credit profile or changes in the gaming industry could trigger future rating actions for Macao, according to Fitch.
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