It might be of some concern to shareholders to see the Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ:CALM) share price down 17% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been very strong. It's fair to say most would be happy with 145% the gain in that time. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend.
Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 3.2%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.
See our latest analysis for Cal-Maine Foods
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the five years of share price growth, Cal-Maine Foods moved from a loss to profitability. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It is of course excellent to see how Cal-Maine Foods has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at Cal-Maine Foods' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Cal-Maine Foods' TSR for the last 5 years was 191%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
It's nice to see that Cal-Maine Foods shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 60% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 24% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Cal-Maine Foods better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Cal-Maine Foods (including 1 which is a bit concerning) .
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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