By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Feb 25 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars were on the back foot on Tuesday after again failing to clear resistance, and markets were reminded the next round of U.S. tariff jeopardy was just days away.
President Donald Trump on Monday indicated proposed levies on Mexico and Canada were still set to start next week, when investors had hoped negotiations would forestall the threat.
The Antipodean countries are open economies heavily reliant on resource exports and their currencies are particularly vulnerable to the risk of a global trade war.
That left the Aussie down 0.1% at $0.6339 AUD=D3, having backed off a $0.6392 top overnight and away from the 100-day moving average at $0.6404. Support lies at $0.6326, with more resistance at $0.6415.
The kiwi dollar dipped to $0.5725 NZD=D3, after topping out at $0.5769 on Monday. Support comes in at $0.5675 with chart resistance at $0.5791.
The domestic focus remains on the outlook for interest rates after the Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of New Zealand both cut last week.
An ANZ survey of Australian consumers out on Tuesday showed sentiment bounced to the highest since mid-2022 in the wake of the policy easing, with respondents cheered about their finances and the economic outlook.
If that confidence were to turn into actual spending it might lessen the need for further rate cuts, though the jury is very much out on consumer demand.
More important will be whether core inflation keeps slowing this quarter and returns to the RBA's 2-3% target band.
The January report on consumer prices is due on Wednesday and forecasts are for the headline rate to tick up to 2.6%, partly as government rebates on electricity expire.
The first CPI report in a quarter is dominated by goods and has little information on services, which limits its importance for policy.
Still, another low result for the trimmed mean, which fell sharply to 2.7% in December, would support hopes for a benign result in the quarter as a whole.
The first-quarter report is not out until late April and thus after the RBA's next meeting on April 1, which is one reason markets see scant chance of another rate cut until May.
The RBNZ has already flagged it will likely cut its 3.75% cash rate by 25 basis points in April and May, before pausing.
(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Chris Reese)
((Wayne.Cole@thomsonreuters.com; 612 9171 7144; Reuters Messaging: wayne.cole.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
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