We expect Steven Madden, Ltd. SHOO to report a year-over-year increase in top line when it releases fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Feb. 26, before the market opens. Investors are closely monitoring for insights into the company's performance and strategic direction. 

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The company has effectively established a niche in the competitive footwear market by emphasizing trendy, fashion-forward designs that attract a wide consumer base. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $548.6 million, which indicates an increase of 5.6% from the prior-year figure.

However, the bottom line is expected to have declined year over year. In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has remained stable at 54 cents, which indicates a decrease of 11.5% from the year-ago quarter's level.

Steven Madden delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.8%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Long Island City, NY-based company's earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 2.3%.

Key Factors Influencing SHOO's Q4 Performance

Steven Madden has strategically concentrated on several key initiatives, which are likely to have favorably impacted its fourth-quarter performance. The company’s emphasis on expanding direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment, diversifying into accessories and apparel beyond footwear, and strengthening its international presence while maintaining a solid U.S. wholesale business is expected to have driven top-line growth.

The company’s DTC channels, particularly digital sales, are likely to have contributed to revenue growth. Investments in e-commerce enhancements and refined digital marketing strategies have been driving stronger online engagement. Additionally, the company’s commitment to curating trend-forward merchandise, deepening customer relationships through targeted marketing and advancing digital capabilities is expected to have further supported sales. We expect DTC channel revenues to grow 6.8% year over year in the fourth quarter.

Steve Madden's decent performance in wholesale business is likely to have positively impacted its quarterly performance by driving continued demand and retailer reorders. We estimate wholesale revenues to grow 4.7% year over year in the fourth quarter. Within this segment, wholesale accessories revenues are expected to increase 7.5% year over year, while wholesale footwear revenues are anticipated to grow 3%.

Furthermore, Steve Madden's strategic emphasis on expanding its international presence is expected to have contributed to revenue growth. The company has been steadily increasing its footprint across key regions, including Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Americas (excluding the United States) and Asia Pacific. 

However, the operating environment remains challenging as consumers remain cautious on discretionary spending. Also, higher operating expenses add to these concerns, with any further deleverage likely to pressure the bottom line. We anticipate adjusted operating expenses, as a percentage of sales, to have deleveraged 120 basis points in the fourth quarter.

What the Zacks Model Predicts for Steven Madden

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Steven Madden this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Steven Madden currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.67% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

BJ’s Wholesale Club BJ has an Earnings ESP of +1.79% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present.  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share is pegged at 86 cents, which implies a 22.5% year-over-year decline. 

BJ’s Wholesale Club’s top line is expected to have decreased year over year. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.35 billion, which indicates a dip of 0.1% from the prior-year quarter. BJ delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.5%, on average.

Lululemon athletica LULU presently has an Earnings ESP of +0.23% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is slated to register a top-line increase when it reports fiscal fourth-quarter results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LULU’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.57 billion, which indicates growth of 11.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The consensus estimate for Lululemon athletica’s quarterly earnings has risen 3 cents in the past 30 days to $5.83 per share. The figure indicates growth of 11.2% from the year-ago quarter’s number. LULU delivered an average earnings surprise of 6.7% in the trailing four quarters.

Columbia Sportswear COLM has an Earnings ESP of +2.96% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is anticipated to witness a top-line decrease in its first-quarter results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $762.1 billion, which indicates a 1% decrease from the year-ago quarter's level. 

The company’s bottom line is expected to have decreased. The consensus estimate for Columbia Sportswear’s earnings is pegged at 68 cents per share, down 4.2% from the year-ago quarter. COLM delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 36.7%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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