The biggest thing about this week to note is that US consumer confidence levels have hit four year lows as Trump’s ongoing tariff statements create fear and confusion.
It feels like a sudden departure from what was otherwise a very good mood during the ‘Trump Bump’ only a handful of weeks ago.
Of course, with all of the DOGE stuff happening, it’s been a headline one could have missed. But the data is being watched by the current administration. That’s easy to tell, because Donald Trump “truthed” a statement on his own Truth Social that the American consumer was confident and everything was fine.
You can reverse engineer what’s really going on by just listening to what he says. But enough about Trump, where possible.
Also worrying is that the US bond yield curve inverted this week, again, which usually happens before a recession. Whether or not the current government would even publicly release contractionary GDP that data is, unfortunately, a meaningful question.
Anyway.
The ripples from America have, as ever, impacted the ASX in recent weeks. Especially this week, one of our worst this year so far. The 8,500pts+ record high of recent history is currently hard to reconcile with an XJO back down under 8,300pts.
We’ve also learned this week problems with China’s overall financial health continue.
The government is effectively moving – according to reports – to limit the amount of Chinese companies participating in share sales offshore via Hong Kong. Capital outflows from the country are at record levels again, despite some perhaps more positive datapoints coming from the country in recent history.
But with a trade war well and truly re-started and China now ratcheting up mineral export curbs again – a trick which it’s getting a lot of mileage from – clearly, nerves are rattled there too.
There were also some more stimulus announcements, but like the last two dozen or so, nobody really cared.
But there were a few other big ticket things that happened this week. Salesforce is having trouble selling its AI Agents – they’re supposed to be a godsend for the company, but right now, they aren’t – and that led to another rattling of confidence in the AI thematic.
NVIDIA’s latest earnings were taken well but its largely making money off other corporate giants buying its chips for AI.
Microsoft, for its part, cancelled a lease this week on a data centre it was building. This has also led to some concerns among some AI believers.
Copper prices, meanwhile – at least on US exchanges COMEX and the CME – are higher than on the LME, and that actually occurred before Trump announced he’s ordered an investigation into the US copper market with a view towards … whatever, it will end up in tariffs.
Or at least that’s what pricing predicts at the current time.
Speaking of Trump – last time this article! – he also revoked a Biden-era permit given to Chevron to allow the latter to drill and produce in Venezuela.
Trump was oddly fixated on Venezuela in his first administration, for some reason. At least this time he’s actually taking on a country currently accused of disappearing its citizens.
Speaking of oil and gas – BP has cut back by US$5B the amount it was going to spend this year on clean energy projects. To anybody paying proper attention, that’s hardly worth mentioning.
Until next week.
International Equities
Salesforce having trouble selling ‘AI Agents’ despite CEO’s pointed optimism
Nissan’s bungled deal with Honda has it preparing to ditch its CEO
Microsoft appears to have ordered too many data centres; pauses construction of facility
China tech stocks dive on Tuesday as Trump ratchets up tension
Australian Economy
Oz core inflation – TMI to be exact – edged up one pip in January
JP Morgan downgrades Oz GDP Q4 forecast on private sector spend miss
The RBA is moving to self-limit communications to ensure less ‘noise’ around rate decisions
International Economies
China appears to be cracking down on Chinese companies selling shares via Hong Kong
US consumer confidence notches biggest decline in 4 years
Chilean mines hit by power outage that affected most of the country
Commodities
Trump is increasingly looking like he’ll place tariffs on copper imports
And copper prices are already +7% higher this month
Geopolitics
Trump cancels Chevron’s permit to produce in Venezuela; puts him at odds with supermajor
Trump’s move to blame Ukraine for war and take its minerals rankles former Treasurer
Regulatory, Odds & Ends
Google hit with lawsuit over AI search engine previews generally degrading internet quality
Jeff Bezos flags Washington Post OpEds are about to get right wing
BP cuts over US$5B of planned clean energy spending in 2025
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.