If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. But Trinity Industries, Inc. (NYSE:TRN) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 58% over five years, which is below the market return. However, more recent buyers should be happy with the increase of 30% over the last year.
Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 7.2%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.
See our latest analysis for Trinity Industries
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the last half decade, Trinity Industries became profitable. That's generally thought to be a genuine positive, so investors may expect to see an increasing share price.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It is of course excellent to see how Trinity Industries has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at Trinity Industries' financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Trinity Industries' TSR for the last 5 years was 89%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
We're pleased to report that Trinity Industries shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 34% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 14% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Trinity Industries (including 1 which is significant) .
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Discover if Trinity Industries might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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