Novavax NVAX is expected to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings later this month. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings beat estimates by 12.64%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales is pegged at $90.72 million, while that for earnings is pinned at a loss of 67 cents per share.

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Factors Shaping NVAX’s Upcoming Results

Although Novavax secured the FDA’s authorization for an updated version of its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine toward the end of August, it was delayed compared to the approvals/authorizations granted to mRNA-based vaccines marketed by rivals Pfizer and Moderna. This earlier head-start is likely to have benefited both mRNA-based vaccines. Also, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines hold an edge over NVAX’s vaccine. The mRNA-based vaccines have been designed to target the virus’s KP.2 strain, which is a more advanced strain compared to JN.1, which the Novavax vaccine is designed to target.

Based on the above factors, we expect minimal vaccine sales for the quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for product sales is pegged at $82 million.

In December, Novavax announced that it has started dosing participants in a phase III study evaluating its experimental COVID-19-influenza combination (CIC) and stand-alone influenza vaccine candidates. The study will compare the immunogenicity and safety of the CIC vaccine with separate administrations of Novavax’s currently authorized COVID-19 vaccine and a licensed seasonal influenza vaccine. It is also assessing the immunogenicity and safety of the standalone influenza vaccine. Investors will likely be interested in seeking updates from management on this study’s progress.

We also expect management to provide an update on the technology transfer related to the company’s COVID-19 vaccine to pharma giant Sanofi SNY. Per the company’s recently signed multi-billion dollar deal, SNY assumed commercial responsibility for marketing the COVID-19 vaccine starting Jan. 1, 2025. The deal terms also allow Sanofi to use this vaccine to develop novel COVID-19-influenza combination vaccines.

Investors would also seek an update from Novavax on the progress of its preclinical pipeline, which includes vaccines for RSV and H5N1 bird flu. Novavax is also advancing core technology for different uses,like mucosal vaccination and high-density nanoparticles. Management intends to focus on exploring RSV-combination options and new opportunities in diseases like varicella-zoster virus (shingles) and Clostridium difficile (C. Diff.) colitis. It is also planning to expand into the field of oncology.

NVAX’s Earnings Surprise History

The biotech firm’s earnings missed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and met once, delivering a trailing four-quarter average negative surprise of 56.95%.

Novavax, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Novavax, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Novavax, Inc. Quote

Novavax’s shares have risen 3% year to date compared with the industry’s 5% growth.

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What Our Model Predicts for NVAX

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Novavax this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the oddsof an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Novavax has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat onearnings in the next quarter:

argenx ARGX has an Earnings ESP of +34.55% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

ARGX’s shares have gained about 4% year to date. argenx beat on earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark on the other two occasions, delivering an average surprise of 339.37%.

TG Therapeutics TGTX has an Earnings ESP of +58.54% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Year to date, TGTX’s shares have risen nearly 4%. TG Therapeutics beat on earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark on the other two occasions, delivering an average surprise of 10.42%.

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Sanofi (SNY) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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