No US? No problem: Whitehaven’s stake in Blackwater to go to Nippon for Q2CY2025

The Market Herald
20 Feb

Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) has confirmed it has received regulatory approval to sell a 20% stake in its Blackwater project to Japan’s Nippon Steel – not long after the latter was rebuked from snatching up U.S. Steel by both Biden and Trump.

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The Japanese prime minister has since come out this week and called the decision not to allow the buyout of U.S. Steel “unjust.”

That perhaps is fair, considering that US Steel has long been a shadow of its former self; the US and Japan are allies, and in the background, both countries have a fairly obvious shared competitive nation-state living in their heads rent-free.

(For Nippon, so too was the Queensland government’s decision to raise royalty rates in mid-2024, something which Nippon commented publicly on.)

But the synthesis of strategic goals here is clear to see. Interesting times, too, for Nippon to see the Australian government greenlight a deal of no small nature.

It’s ultimately a US$1B transaction for Whitehaven, divesting part of its QLD-based Blackwater project it only acquired in the 2020s (another 10% stake in Blackwater goes to JFE Steel Corporation – also Japanese).

Equity coal sales guidance dropped from 25.1-28.3Mt for FY25 to 24.3-27.4Mt – around a million tonnes on either side.

The approval of the deal should be a partial relief, seeing as some believed Whitehaven wanted to sell the mine outright early last year. At least one hedge fund was encouraging Whitehaven not to buy Blackwater off BHP at all when it did.

Notably, BHP jointly oversaw the project alongside Japan’s Mitsubishi.

“We are excited to be commencing a joint venture with Nippon Steel and JFE Steel, two long-term customers who recognise the attractiveness of Blackwater’s metallurgical coal products and the importance of securing supply for the longer-term” Whitehaven CEO Paul Flynn said today.

“The proceeds from the sell-down will further strengthen Whitehaven’s balance sheet. The Board will review Whitehaven’s capital allocation framework at the end of FY25, including capacity to lift capital returns for shareholders.”

The deal attracted some scrutiny from corporate responsibility advocates when it was first revealed in mid-2024, given Nippon, like most other industrial players, was very pro-ESG in the early COVID years, and now finds itself less enthusiastic.

Not that the reception to the Nippon deal mattered for Whitehaven on Thursday – its latest earnings show a huge cash jump vs pcp.

WHC last traded at $5.58/sh.

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