Investors in Air Lease Corporation (NYSE:AL) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.4% to close at US$49.45 following the release of its yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$2.7b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Air Lease surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$3.33 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Air Lease

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Air Lease's four analysts is for revenues of US$2.92b in 2025. This would reflect a modest 6.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 23% to US$4.11. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.08b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.33 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$55.33 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Air Lease, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$64.00 and the most bearish at US$47.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Air Lease's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Air Lease'shistorical trends, as the 6.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 7.5% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that Air Lease is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Air Lease going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for Air Lease (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.