The stock market thinks it's got President Donald Trump's tariffs game all figured out.

After much anticipation, Trump's reciprocal tariffs announcement ended up being a memo directing federal agencies to explore adjusting levies to match those imposed by other countries on U.S. goods. The studies will be completed by April 1.

The delay is significant. Trump's Truth Social post just hours earlier had markets on edge, perhaps expecting tariffs more immediately. "Today is the big one: reciprocal tariffs," he wrote.

But, as with the proposed levies on Mexico and Canada, they were postponed.

The market has long suspected the president's aggressive trade policy is a negotiating tactic, and this latest delay adds evidence to that theory. It opens the door to negotiations with countries that impose high trade taxes on the U.S.

In fact, it's already happening -- India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the White House Thursday and both sides agreed to negotiate a new trade deal. India has some of the highest tariff rates on U.S. goods.

The reciprocal threat may even lead to countries lowering their tariffs, without the U.S. having to raise its -- diminishing the risk of inflation spiking.

The S&P 500 closed just 0.06% off the record high it reached in Trump's first week back in the White House. But some caution may be needed. The delay to reciprocal tariffs, and the postponement of levies on Mexico and Canada, don't necessarily mean a softening of Trump's trade policy. The former, in particular, is a complicated process and was always going to take time.

What's being proposed is still a major shift in global trade and Trump's rhetoric hasn't softened in the slightest. The tariffs game has only just begun, and investors could still get burned.

-- Callum Keown

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U.S. Levies Will Kick In After Review

President Donald Trump signed plans for his reciprocal tariffs, further escalating his global trade war, but they won't kick in until April 1. The Commerce Department and U.S. Trade Representative will propose ways to adjust U.S. tariff rates to match other countries' economic barriers on U.S. goods.

   -- Instead of an executive order, Trump signed a reciprocal trade memo that 
      will examine countries with the highest trade surpluses with the U.S. He 
      said the U.S. has been treated unfairly for years by its trading partners, 
      whom he says charge "vastly more than we charge them." 
 
   -- The memo said the goal is to ensure fairness and balance by factoring in 
      measures that disadvantage the U.S., "regardless of what they are 
      called." Administration officials said the U.S. could impose tariffs 
      equal to the value-added taxes some countries impose on U.S. goods. 
 
   -- Wells Fargo analysts expect the tariffs to "downshift" real gross 
      domestic product growth over the next few quarters as the higher costs of 
      tariffs erode growth in real income and weigh on consumer spending. 
 
   -- If the U.S. pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy instead of a universal 
      10% tariff on every country, it could lead to a "smaller rise in the 
      overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed," Capital Economics' 
      Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist Shilan Shah wrote. 

What's Next: The new tariffs could go into effect in weeks or possibly months, MarketWatch reported, citing senior White House officials. Goldman Sachs analysts led by Jan Hatzius said some countries could reduce their tariffs on the U.S., in the hope that Trump would follow suit.

-- Callum Keown and Janet H. Cho

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Kennedy Takes Helm of HHS and Commission on Child Health

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., sworn in as Secretary of Health and Human Services after the Senate confirmed him, will lead a new commission charged with creating a strategy to improve children's health. He is also expected to examine vaccine safety as he establishes his "Make America Healthy Again" agenda.

   -- Kennedy, a vaccine skeptic, could appoint allies to the federal panel 
      that oversees vaccine recommendations. As recently as January, Kennedy 
      refused to rebuke the discredited theory that childhood vaccines cause 
      autism. 
 
   -- The Senate voted 52 to 48 to confirm Kennedy. All Democrats opposed and 
      one Republican also voted no: Sen. Mitch McConnell, the former majority 
      leader who survived polio as a toddler. The introduction of a polio 
      vaccine in the 1950s resulted in the eradication of the disease from the 
      Americas in the 1990s. 
 
   -- The drug industry made no outward effort to oppose Kennedy's confirmation, 
      and executives such as Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla have said it's better to 
      engage with him. After the vote, the CEO of the drug industry lobbying 
      group PhRMA, Stephen Ubl, said companies were looking forward to working 
      with him. 
 
   -- Kennedy takes the helm of HHS amid soaring cases of flu and other 
      respiratory infections throughout the country and as health experts 
      continue to monitor a growing bird flu outbreak. The rate of 
      hospitalizations because of flu is higher than in any year since the 
      winter of 2017 and 2018. 

What's Next: Health officials say at least 24 million people have been sick with the flu in the U.S. so far this year. The recent explosion of cases could boost business for retail pharmacy owners such as Walgreens Boots Alliance and CVS Health and companies like Kenvue, which sells Tylenol.

-- Josh Nathan-Kazis

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Ron Paul Wants to Lay Bare the Fed's Inner Workings

Elon Musk's government-shrinking campaign may now turn to the Federal Reserve, where the billionaire is embracing a call to put Fed critic Ron Paul in charge of the central bank. Paul, the former Texas congressman and presidential candidate, has renewed his call for an audit of the Fed.

   -- In an interview with Barron's, Paul said he wants to reveal in detail how 
      the Fed conducts its monetary policy and payment functions, including its 
      overseas transactions. Musk heads the newly created Department of 
      Government Efficiency, which President Donald Trump has charged with 
      shrinking government. 
 
   -- Musk, the Tesla CEO and X owner, says government must be fully 
      transparent and accountable to the people, even the Fed. Rep. Mike Lee 
      (R-UT) and others have called for Paul to lead the audit of the Fed. The 
      White House didn't comment as to any formal plans for a Fed review. 
 
   -- For about three decades, Paul has advocated a full audit of the central 
      bank. But not a purely financial audit. The Fed already undergoes an 
      annual audit conducted by an independent outside auditor retained by its 
      board of governors. Paul wants a review that provides more transparency 
      of the Fed's actions. 
 
   -- In the past, he advocated for the Government Accountability Office to 
      give Congress annual reports on the central bank's monetary policy 
      functions. The Fed releases minutes of its policy meetings weeks after 
      the fact, but Paul says that's not enough. 

What's Next: Neither the White House nor Musk's team has reached out directly to Paul, but "Elon has been very favorable in promoting my position. So I put things out in a very amateurish fashion; I just make comments about what they ought to do, and he will pay attention to that, " Paul said. Read more here.

-- Megan Leonhardt

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Apple and Google Bring TikTok Back to U.S. App Stores

Apple and Google have put TikTok back on their mobile app stores amid efforts by the Trump administration to reach a deal to keep the video-sharing app operating in the U.S.

   -- Apple decided to restore the TikTok app after a letter from U.S. Attorney 
      General Pam Bondi, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person 
      familiar with the matter. It was removed to comply with a U.S. law that 
      requires TikTok's Chinese parent ByteDance to sell the app or shut it 
      down. 
 
   -- President Donald Trump signed an executive order on the day of his 
      inauguration delaying enforcement of the law passed in regard to TikTok's 
      ownership. He has suggested companies such as Oracle, Microsoft, and 
      Amazon.com could offer to buy its U.S. business. 
 
   -- Apple is aiming to launch AI features in China by the middle of this year 
      in partnership with domestic companies Alibaba and Baidu, with models 
      that will censor their output to comply with Beijing's requirements, 
      Bloomberg reported on Friday. 

What's Next: Trump's non-enforcement order on the TikTok ban is effective until early April, when he could choose to extend it again. If he doesn't, then Apple and Google-parent Alphabet could be forced to decide whether to take the app off their stores again -- balancing the legal risk against potentially angering both the U.S. and Chinese governments.

-- Adam Clark

***

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