Australia, NZ dollars whipsawed by geopolitics, yield spike

Reuters
13 Feb
Australia, NZ dollars whipsawed by geopolitics, yield spike

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars steadied on Thursday after a volatile ride as talk of a possible pause in the Russian-Ukraine war boosted risk sentiment and helped offset a spike in U.S. Treasury yields.

Both currencies had slipped on Wednesday when a high reading on U.S. inflation seemed to narrow the scope for rate cuts there, even prompting talk the next move might be up.

Then the mood improved when President Donald Trump floated the idea of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and the start of peace talks. The news helped stocks bounce and knocked oil prices lower, while the U.S. dollar gave back some gains.

Tariffs remained a sticking point as Trump said he might sign reciprocal levies on Wednesday or Thursday.

The see-saw action left the Aussie holding at $0.6282 AUD=D3, having eased 0.3% overnight and off a top of $0.6309. The currency found support around $0.6235, while resistance lies at $0.6330.

It was also helped by a 1% jump on the yen to 96.88 AUDJPY= as the Japanese currency slipped broadly.

The kiwi dollar stood at $0.5642 NZD=D3, after easing 0.2% overnight. Again the kiwi had bounced from a low of $0.5601 as risk sentiment improved.

Local bonds were sideswiped by the sell off in Treasuries, with three-year futures YTTc1 down 6 ticks at 96.080 having hit a three-week low at one stage. Yields on 10-year bonds AU10YT=RR jumped 14 ticks to 4.538%.

While markets further scaled back expectations for U.S. rate cuts this year, they still implied a 90% probability the Reserve Bank of Australia would start its easing cycle next week.

The RBA is seen cutting its 4.35% cash rate by 25 basis points when it meets on February 18, though the cycle is also expected to be shallow with just 75 basis points of easing priced in for this year. 0#AUDIRPR

As a result, if the RBA does cut next week investors assume it will offer little guidance on further moves.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on February 19 and markets are confident it will chop its 4.25% cash rate by another 50 basis points. 0#NZDIRPR

Kelly Eckhold, head of NZ economics at Westpac, expects the RBNZ will project rates at 3.25% by year-end, compared to 3.55% previously.

"We don't think the RBNZ will be looking to move interest rates into stimulatory territory but would certainly acknowledge there are scenarios that might require that," she added.

(Reporting by Wayne ColeEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

((Wayne.Cole@thomsonreuters.com; 612 9171 7144; Reuters Messaging: wayne.cole.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

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