President Trump’s 25% tariff on imported steel has drawn investor interest in domestic steel producers, with the two largest being Nucor NUE and United States Steel X.

Seeing as steel production is likely to increase in the U.S., it may be a worthy topic of which stock is the better investment at the moment.

Trump’s Protective Policies  

Vowing to protect and revitalize America’s steel industry, Trump’s steel tariffs against foreign importers led to a nice spike in United States Steel and Nucor stock this week.

X and NUE are now up +4% and +6% in February, respectively. While it may be tempting to own X and NUE given the Trump administration's “protective” policies, it is noteworthy that they have noticeably lagged the broader market over the last year.

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United States Steel & Nucor Outlook

Based on Zacks estimates, United States Steel’s total sales are currently expected to rise 2% in fiscal 2025, with its top line projected to expand another 6% in FY26 to $17.07 billion. However, annual earnings are slated to decline 19% in FY25 to $1.73 per share versus EPS of $2.14 in 2024.

United States Steel’s bottom line is projected to rebound and soar 98% to $3.42 per share next year. That said, FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates have now declined 26% and 8% over the last 30 days, respectively. This comes as United States Steel gave lower-than-expected guidance in its Q4 report last Tuesday despite surpassing top and bottom-line expectations.

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As for Nucor, its total sales are expected to dip 1% in FY25 but are projected to rebound and rise 6% in FY26 to $32.26 billion. Nucor’s EPS is forecasted to drop 14% this year but is projected to rebound and spike 43% in FY26 to $10.99 per share. Notably, Nucor’s FY25 EPS estimates have dipped 8% in the last month, with FY26 EPS estimates down 2%.

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X & NUE Valuation Comparison

Making Nucor’s outlook more intriguing is that NUE trades at 17.2X forward earnings, which is closer to the Zacks Steel-Producers Industry average of 12.3X. Meanwhile, United States Steel trades at a noticeable premium to its peers at 19.4X despite having a less appealing earnings outlook than Nucor.   

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Bottom Line

It does appear that United States Steel is in more need of Trump’s protective policies, with its stock landing a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) based on a very concerning trend of declining earnings estimate revisions. Although Nucor’s earnings potential remains compelling, NUE lands a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) as better buying opportunities could still be ahead.  

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