By Callum Keown

The world is waiting for the next major development in the escalating global trade war--and that's likely to be details of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs.

Trump is expected to outline the measures Thursday, targeting countries that have imposed trade taxes on the U.S. The timing is uncertain, though, and was initially expected earlier this week.

"I may do it later on, or I may do it tomorrow morning, but we'll be signing reciprocal tariffs," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Wednesday, according to Reuters.

The phrase reciprocal tariffs isn't a technical term defined by international trade organizations but it's been used by Trump on numerous occasions.

"If India, China, or any other country hits us with a 100 or 200 percent tariff on American-made goods, we will hit them with the same exact tariff," he said in campaign promotional material from 2023. "In other words, 100 percent is 100 percent. If they charge US, we charge THEM -- an eye for an eye, a tariff for a tariff, same exact amount."

Goldman Sachs analysts led by Jan Hatzius said that while the policy poses risks, "it could incrementally reduce trade policy uncertainty once announced," in a note earlier this week. They also noted that some countries may even reduce tariffs on the U.S., in the hope that Trump would do the same.

Hatzius added that if the reciprocity was done at a country level, rather than by product, then there should be no impact on countries with free trade agreements such as Mexico, Canada and Korea.

Trump made his trade war global Monday, signing executive orders to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. Australia-headquartered aluminum maker South32's CEO Graham Kerr said American consumers would bear the brunt of costs, as the company reported earnings Thursday.

Separately, Elon Musk said the U.S. government needs to "delete entire agencies" when asked if his cost and efficiency drive will last beyond Trump's second term. "I think we do need to delete entire agencies, as opposed to leave part of them behind...It's kind of like leaving a weed, " the Tesla CEO said at Dubai's World Government Summit Thursday, CNBC reported.

Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@dowjones.com

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February 13, 2025 04:58 ET (09:58 GMT)

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