One phone call from United States President Donald Trump will not magically end the war in Ukraine, but analysts say it was a significant move towards a ceasefire process.
Trump said on Wednesday (Feb 12) that Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to begin peace negotiations after the two held a “lengthy and highly productive phone call”.
He later added that if a deal is to be reached, it is unlikely Ukraine will win back all its territory or join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military alliance – both among Kyiv's demands before possible negotiations with Russia.
Trump also spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a separate call, where they discussed "opportunities to achieve peace".
“I think Zelenskyy will have to swallow quite a bit in order to arrive at a ceasefire,” said Klaus Larres, a global fellow at Washington-based think tank Wilson Center.
While Russia appears to be holding the upper hand, Larres said Trump likely expects both sides to make concessions as he would not want Putin to be able to claim victory.
“(Trump) doesn't want the world press telling him: ‘You have lost Ukraine, you have appeased Putin’. He realises concessions have to be made on both sides,” he told CNA938.
Larres, who is also a distinguished professor of history and international affairs at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, added that this could mean Moscow having to give up some captured territory, although it is unclear to what extent.
Russia partially occupies Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions – around a fifth of Ukraine. Moscow has demanded Kyiv cede more territory and be rendered permanently neutral under any peace deal.
Ukraine has demanded Russia withdraw from captured territory – including Crimea, which was annexed in 2014. Kyiv also wants NATO membership or equivalent security guarantees to prevent Moscow from attacking again.
Trump and Putin enjoyed amicable ties during Trump’s first term in office between 2017 and 2021, and have sung each other’s praises.
There are fears Trump would sacrifice Ukraine’s interests and favour Russia in order to bring a swift conclusion to the war.
“Trump has a much better relationship with Putin (than Zelenskyy) in principle, but it all depends on the details of the negotiations,” said Larres.
The Ukrainian president has offered to partner the US to develop his nation’s rare earths and natural minerals deposits – a move analysts said was realistic, given Trump’s transactional nature.
“Zelenskyy has little choice. He knows that Trump … wants to see some rewards for what the US has done in support of Ukraine,” said Larres.
“Ukraine needs continued American support during the peace negotiations and before a ceasefire is agreed. If the US withdraws support now, then it will be even more difficult for Ukraine in terms of its military and financial (situation).”
Observers said Ukraine is attempting to take back and maintain as much territory as possible before peace negotiations start.
In his first few days in office, Trump threatened to impose new restrictions on Moscow, on top of massive sanctions already in place since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost three years ago.
Matthew Sussex, an associate professor at Griffith University’s Griffith Asia Institute, said the Trump administration's about-turn now could have stemmed from a realisation there are few opportunities for leverage using more sanctions, and switched to a more friendly approach.
However, the move has sent chills through NATO members and other allies that the Trump administration could side with “autocrats who invade other countries”, he added.
“Europeans know that without the US… they will not be able to support Ukraine for a long time. It requires American military effort for Ukraine to continue the fight. Trump knows that very well, and I think he's exploiting that.”
NATO powers including Britain, France and Germany stressed Europe must be involved in any future negotiations on the fate of Ukraine, and that only a fair agreement will ensure lasting peace.
Alexander Korolev, a senior politics lecturer at the University of New South Wales, said the call has wider implications for Europe as it indicates that the US is looking to reduce its presence, support and commitment to European geopolitics.
“This will have very serious long-term implications because it signals a reconfiguration of the existing security architecture,” he told CNA’s Asia Now programme, adding Europe will need to rethink its defence spending as it grows more wary of Russia and as the US grows more distant.
Analysts said Trump’s sooner-than-expected phone calls with both Putin and Zelenskyy show his ambition to bring an end to the conflict as soon as possible.
Trump told reporters that a meeting with Putin will be held in Saudi Arabia. A date has not been set.
Larres said the Trump administration is likely looking at a closer partnership with the Saudis as that can also help the US in its future proposals in regional issues.
“I think it’s really quite clever to arrange that… (it will) bring the world's attention to Saudi Arabia in a positive way, because (Trump) needs the support of Saudi Arabia regarding the Middle East and his plans about Gaza,” he added.
“We will have to see what comes out of the initial meeting. I think it will be all smiles, but a real ceasefire deal will hardly be concluded at the first meeting.”
Ending the war will fulfill one of Trump’s campaign promises and will also allow him to prioritise US strategic interests elsewhere – analysts point to Asia and the South China Sea.
Trump had previously promised to end the war “within 24 hours”, while his special envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg set a goal of 100 days last month.
Analysts, however, expressed doubts a deal will be reached any time soon.
“We shouldn't be over optimistic because it's just the beginning of what seems to be a very long process. But at the same time, it is a realistic start, because for the war in Ukraine to end, the US and Russia need to talk,” said Korolev.
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