nCino Plunges 20% in 3 Months: Is the Stock Worth Buying on the Dip?

Zacks
12 Feb

nCino NCNO shares have plunged 19.9% over the trailing three months, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s rise of 2.2% and the Zacks Internet - Software industry’s return of 17.7%.

The underperformance can be attributed to intense competition in the fintech industry, particularly from companies offering similar cloud-based solutions to financial institutions. Potential integration challenges from recent acquisitions have further contributed to NCNO’s struggles.

Three Month Performance


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However, NCNO is benefiting from strong sales momentum, which is highlighted by multi-solution deals and expansion in key markets such as the United States, Japan, and Norway. Its new pricing framework and strategic acquisitions, including FullCircl and DocFox, are driving revenue growth and positioning it for continued success in the global financial services sector.

These factors have enabled NCNO to outperform its industry peers, including AudioEye AEYE and Synchronoss Technologies SNCR, over the trailing six-month period. AEYE and SNCR shares have lost 13% and 3.9%, respectively, over the same time frame.

NCNO Expands Global Reach With Key Partnerships

NCNO’s expanding clientele has been a major growth driver for its success. In the fiscal third quarter of 2025, nCino saw significant sales momentum, with gross bookings accelerating both quarter over quarter and year over year. It signed over 30 multi-solution deals and generated more gross bookings from new customers than the last two quarters combined. 

In the fiscal third quarter, the company secured major deals, including an expansion with a top-40 U.S. bank for commercial and small business lending and signing its largest customer in Japan—Tokushima Taisho Bank. This highlights the strong demand for its solutions across diverse markets. This expansion into international markets further solidifies nCino’s position as a global leader in banking technology solutions.

In December 2024, nCino announced that Habib Bank Zurich plc (HBZ UK) had selected its platform to digitally enhance and grow the bank’s Buy-to-Let Lending business in the UK, streamlining processes, enhancing risk management, and improving customer experience through intelligent solutions. This partnership underscores nCino’s growing global presence and its commitment to strengthening banking operations for institutions worldwide.

NCNO expands its partnership with M&T Bank MTB by integrating its Continuous Credit Monitoring Solution, powered by RDC’s AI decisioning platform, into M&T’s operations. 

This collaboration enhances M&T’s ability to proactively manage credit risk and identify lower-risk lending opportunities, transforming credit risk management through real-time, actionable insights. The integration with M&T further exemplifies how nCino’s solutions help banks enhance their operations, manage risks, and improve decision-making through advanced technology.







Strategic Deals Boost NCNO’s Prospects

Strategic deals are key to NCNO’s growth trajectory, with acquisitions such as FullCircl and DocFox contributing to its expansion.

nCino closed the acquisition of FullCircl in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, strengthening its onboarding capabilities and expanding its presence in the UK and Europe.  

This acquisition allows nCino to offer enhanced data aggregation and improve the client lifecycle management process, which is a highly manual and time-intensive task for financial institutions.

Based on observed attachment rates, FullCircl is expected to contribute to an $800 million increase in nCino’s global serviceable addressable market.

The company’s acquisition of DocFox is a major positive. The buyout has benefited nCino by enhancing its platform with DocFox’s automation technology, streamlining the client onboarding process for commercial and business banking.







NCNO’s 2025 Outlook Looks Promising

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, the company expects revenues between $139.5 million and $141.5 million. 

NCNO expects non-GAAP earnings of 72-73 cents per share.

For fiscal 2025, revenues are projected to be between $539 million and $541 million.

NCNO expects non-GAAP earnings of 72-73 cents per share.





Earnings Estimates for NCNO Show Upward Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $140.62 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 13.69%.

The consensus mark for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 earnings is pegged at 18 cents per share, which has remained unchanged in the past 30 days.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $540.08 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 13.33%.

The consensus mark for fiscal 2025 earnings is pegged at 87 cents per share, which has remained unchanged in the past 30 days.





nCino Inc. Price and Consensus

nCino Inc. price-consensus-chart | nCino Inc. Quote

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

What Should Investors Do With NCNO Stock?

NCNO is trading at a premium, as suggested by the Value Score of F.

In terms of the forward 12-month Price/Sales, NCNO is trading at 6.15X, higher than the industry’s 3.33X.

Price/Sales (F12M)


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

However, NCNO’s strong portfolio, expanding clientele and acquisitions drive top-line growth and justify a premium valuation.

NCNO stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and has a Growth Score of B, a favorable combination that offers a strong investment opportunity, per the Zacks Proprietary methodology. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. (SNCR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Audioeye, Inc. (AEYE) : Free Stock Analysis Report

nCino Inc. (NCNO) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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