MW Travelers expects $1.7 billion insured loss from the California wildfires. Analysts still expect a profit.

By Steve Gelsi

Travelers issues preliminary pretax catastrophe loss from the California wildfires in January

Travelers Cos. Inc. is expecting a preliminary loss of $1.7 billion for the California wildfires in January, as analysts are pricing in the expenses in their first-quarter profit estimates for the insurance giant.

"We are on the ground providing critical resources and support that our customers and neighbors need to recover and rebuild," the company said.

But analysts still expect Travelers $(TRV)$ to post a profit, though they cut their estimates to $3.38 a share as of Tuesday, down from $5.95 a share at the start of 2025, according to FactSet data.

Financial Chief Daniel S. Frey warned on Jan. 22 that the disaster would have a "material impact" on Travelers in the first quarter.

"It's going to be a big event for the industry," Frey said at the time, while declining to provide a cost estimate because the damage was still being assessed.

The $1.7 billion catastrophe loss comes out to be $1.3 billion after tax, and includes losses from both commercial and personal units.

Travelers stock fell fractionally in premarket trading on Tuesday. The stock has risen 0.6% in 2025, while the S&P 500 SPX has risen 3.1%.

CoreLogic, the property-data provider, said on Jan. 16 that its preliminary loss estimate was up to $45 billion for the Easton and Palisades fires in Los Angeles.

"The destruction caused by these fires is anticipated to be the most expensive in the state's history with effects on the insurance industry that will persist into the future," CoreLogic said in a statement at the time.

Also read: Opinion: Who gets to rebuild? Los Angeles fires expose the weakness of U.S. home insurance.

-Steve Gelsi

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February 11, 2025 08:15 ET (13:15 GMT)

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