Investors in Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE:LNC) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.3% to close at US$37.04 following the release of its yearly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$18b were what the analysts expected, Lincoln National surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$18.41 per share, an impressive 101% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Lincoln National

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Lincoln National's eight analysts is for revenues of US$19.2b in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 3.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 63% to US$6.89 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$19.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.08 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$36.91, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Lincoln National at US$43.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$28.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Lincoln National's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 3.9% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 4.8% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.5% per year. So it looks like Lincoln National is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Lincoln National. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$36.91, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Lincoln National analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Lincoln National (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.