It's been a good week for The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 3.8% to US$155. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$11b were what the analysts expected, Hershey surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$10.92 per share, an impressive 22% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Hershey

Following the latest results, Hershey's 19 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$11.4b in 2025. This would be a credible 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 41% to US$6.53 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.71 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 6.0% to US$160, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Hershey analyst has a price target of US$211 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$120. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Hershey shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Hershey's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 144 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Hershey is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hershey. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Hershey's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Hershey analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Hershey is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.