MW Here's what DraftKings and FanDuel want to see at Super Bowl LIX - after NFL bettors beat sportsbooks all season

By Weston Blasi

There's $1.39 billion in bets riding on the Super Bowl this weekend. Here's what sportsbooks do - and don't - want to see happen.

The house doesn't always win. In fact, it's been taking big losses on the National Football League.

NFL fans have had one of their most successful betting seasons in history this league year - leading to hundreds in millions of dollars worth of losses for major sportsbooks, including DraftKings $(DKNG)$ and the Flutter Entertainment-owned $(FLUT)$ FanDuel. Indeed, this NFL season featured the most "customer-friendly" betting outcomes that online sportsbooks have ever seen.

Given casual bettors' outsize success this season, sportsbooks would prefer that fans don't win big on Super Bowl Sunday, so that they could maybe even claw back some of their losses.

So here's what some sportsbooks say they want to see happen when the Philadelphia Eagles face off against the Kansas City Chiefs during Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans this weekend.

"The Eagles moneyline (+110) is the most popular Super Bowl bet," Christian Cipollini, trading manager at BetMGM, told MarketWatch. Casual bettors are pretty split on who they think will win - as 47% of all money wagered on BetMGM is on the Chiefs to win, and 53% is on the Eagles.

Typically, if a majority of people have wagered on something to happen at a sporting event, the sportsbook will obviously be rooting for the opposite to happen.

In this rare instance - despite the roughly even split among wagers between the two teams - BetMGM would still prefer a Chiefs win, because a lot of fans have older "futures" bets on the Chiefs - bets made before the Super Bowl matchup was set - at good odds.

"Philly is a great result on the futures market for the sportsbook," Cipollini said. "We would be happy with Jalen Hurts & Co. lifting the Lombardi Trophy."

BetMGM has other bets that it doesn't want to see cashed in this Sunday, too.

One of the most wagered-on player props is whether Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy will get over or under 5.5 rushing yards in the game, with 99% of all bettors taking the over. BetMGM also doesn't want Eagles running back Saquon Barkley to be the player who scores the first touchdown of the game, because more people have bet on him to score than any other player.

One fan even has a $25,000 bet on Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce to win MVP of the game, a wager that would score a $375,000 payout.

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BetMGM also wants to see "heads" be the outcome of the opening coin toss, as 52% of all coin-toss prop bets were on "tails." The coin toss is the most bet-on prop of the entire Super Bowl.

Other sportsbooks have reported similar betting activity on this year's Super Bowl.

Fans are also favoring the Eagles at FanDuel's sportsbook, with 59% of the bets coming in on the Birds to win. Bettors are also thinking that the Eagles-Chiefs matchup will be a high-scoring Super Bowl, as 83% of all bets on FanDuel are on the game's point total to go over the 48.5 point-total line, a FanDuel spokesperson told MarketWatch.

Barkley is the most bet-on player to score a touchdown on DraftKings' sportsbook, too.

Overall, sportsbooks are hoping for: a Chiefs win; Barkley to not score; Worthy to have less than 6 rushing yards; a "tails" coin toss; and the game's point total to be under 49.

Read more: Thinking about a Super Bowl bet? DraftKings stock may be a less risky gamble than a Travis Kelce touchdown.

Sportsbooks rely on large datasets, statistical models, public opinion and expert analysis to generate predictions for sporting events.

Casual bettors often assume sportsbooks balance betting action on both teams to secure a profit, but the reality is more complex. When bets heavily favor a popular team, sportsbooks adjust the odds to encourage wagers on the other side and limit exposure. While the "vig" - sportsbooks' commission on each bet - helps them profit in most cases, certain weeks this season saw major payouts to bettors as favored teams, including the Chiefs and the Minnesota Vikings, won their games.

"The 2024/2025 NFL season to date has been the most customer friendly since the launch of online sports betting, with the highest rate of favorites winning in nearly 20 years," Flutter Entertainment said during its most recent earnings call.

Flutter also detailed a $74 million loss it took during December's game between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers, which ended in a 40-34 win for the favored Lions.

Read more: Here's how much money NFL stars Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts can make in Super Bowl bonuses

The poor recent performance for some sportsbooks on NFL games didn't just start this season - it can actually be traced back to the 2024 Super Bowl. Last year, BetMGM, which is partly owned by MGM Resorts International $(MGM)$, lost $5 million on Super Bowl bets in New York state alone after the game went into overtime, the Chiefs won and many props bets went over their total.

The Super Bowl, typically the biggest betting event of the year, should be a good day for sportsbooks, but it doesn't always end up that way. And there's a lot of money at stake.

Roughly $1.39 billion is expected to be legally wagered on Super Bowl LIX, according to new data from the American Gaming Association, the primary trade group for the U.S. casino industry. The Super Bowl is consistently the most wagered-on single event in the U.S. each year. Although the NCAA men's college basketball tournament sometimes generates a higher total betting handle, March Madness unfolds over multiple games across three weeks, unlike the one-day spectacle of the Super Bowl.

Related: NFL star Odell Beckham Jr. took his 2021 salary in bitcoin. Here's how much it's worth now.

-Weston Blasi

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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February 08, 2025 08:00 ET (13:00 GMT)

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