Prudential Financial, Inc. PRU is slated to report fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Feb. 4, after market close. PRU delivered a positive earnings surprise in the last reported quarter.

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Factors to Consider

The U.S. business is likely to have gained from higher underwriting results and net investment spread results. The upside is likely to have been partially offset by higher expenses and higher amortization of acquisition costs in the Individual Retirement Strategies business.

Prudential Financial’s international businesses are likely to have been affected by lower underwriting results and higher expenses. The downside is likely to have been partially offset by higher earnings from joint ventures and other operating entities and higher net investment spread results. 

Group Insurance business in the to-be-reported quarter is likely to have been affected by higher expenses. The downside is likely to have been partially offset by higher net investment spread results.

PGIM is likely to have gained from higher net asset management fees and net other related revenues. 

Assets under management are likely to have benefited from the impact of lower interest rates, equity market appreciation and strong investment performance.

Net investment income is likely to have gained from growth in indexed variable annuities, higher reinvestment rates and higher income on non-coupon investments as well as portfolio growth. We expect net investment income to increase 7.2% to $4.2 billion in the to-be-reported quarter.

Expenses are likely to have increased because of higher policyholders’ benefits and amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs. We expect total expenses to be $13.2 billion. 

The Individual Retirement Strategies business is likely to have benefited from higher net investment spread results due to growth in indexed variable annuities and higher reinvestment rates. The upside is likely to have been partially offset by higher amortization costs as well as lower fee income, net of distribution expenses.

The company estimates earnings per share to be $3.34 for the fourth quarter of 2024.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is pegged at $3.28, indicating an increase of 27.1% from the year-ago period’s reported figure. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $14.15 billion, indicating an increase of 8.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

What Our Quantitative Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Prudential Financial this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). This is not the case, as you can see below:

Earnings ESP: Prudential Financial has an Earnings ESP of -1.07%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.25 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.28. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: PRU carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Stocks to Consider

Some insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:

American International Group, Inc. AIG has an Earnings ESP of +2.65% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $1.26, indicating a decline of 29.6% from the year-ago reported figure. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

AIG’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while missed in one.

Assurant, Inc. AIZ has an Earnings ESP of +9.37% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $3.96, indicating a decline of 13.5% from the year-ago reported figure. 

AIZ’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters.

Principal Financial Group, Inc. PFG has an Earnings ESP of +0.03% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $1.95, indicating an increase of 6.5% from the year-ago reported figure. 

PFG’s earnings beat estimates in one of the last four quarters while missing in the other three.

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American International Group, Inc. (AIG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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