Unum Group UNM is slated to report fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Feb. 4, after market close. The insurer’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.

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Factors to Note

Favorable persistency and better sales in the operating segments are likely to have favored premiums in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.7 billion, indicating an increase of 4.1% from the year-ago reported figure. We expect premium income to be $2.6 billion, suggesting an increase of 3.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Higher miscellaneous investment income and an increase in the level of invested assets are likely to have supported higher net investment income. Our estimate is pegged at $520.9 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $537 million. 

Improved premiums and an increase in net investment income are likely to have aided top-line growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the top line is pegged at $3.3 billion, suggesting an increase of 4% from the year-ago number.

The performance of Unum U.S. and Colonial Life, two of the largest operating segments, is likely to have been driven by higher premium income, favorable persistency, favorable benefit experience in the life and accident, sickness, and disability product lines, favorable recoveries in the long-term disability product line and favorable stop loss experience.
 
Better performance in the group insurance business and group disability are likely to aid Unum US results. 

Our estimate for Unum US operating revenues is pegged at $1.7 billion, while the same for Colonial Life is $435 million.

Growing in-force block, favorable recoveries in the group long-term disability product line, higher premium income and favorable benefits experience, increased Unum International and Unum UK sales and higher persistency are likely to have acted in favor of Unum International. Our estimate for Unum International’s operating revenues is pegged at $241.2 million.

Expenses are likely to have increased because of higher policy benefits, commissions, interest and debt expense, amortization of deferred acquisition costs and other expenses. We expect total benefits and expenses to be $2.8 billion.

Continued share buybacks are likely to have provided a boost to the bottom line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is pegged at $2.13, indicating an increase of 19% from the year-ago reported figure.

Here’s What Our Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Unum Group this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) that increases the odds of an earnings beat. 

Earnings ESP: It has an Earnings ESP of +0.24%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.14 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.13. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Unum Group Price and EPS Surprise

Unum Group price-eps-surprise | Unum Group Quote

Zacks Rank: Unum Group currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks to Consider

Some other insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:

American International Group AIG has an Earnings ESP of +2.65% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $1.26, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 29.6%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

AIG’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters while missing in the other one.

Assurant AIZ has an Earnings ESP of +9.37% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $3.96, implying a decrease of 13.5% from the year-ago reported figure.

AIZ’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Trupanion, Inc. TRUP has an Earnings ESP of +97.37% and carries a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at 6 cents, implying an increase of 220% from the year-ago reported figure.

TRUP’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

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