Analysts are expecting big things from Plug Power (PLUG -0.48%) in 2025. According to Wall Street consensus estimates, the hydrogen fuel specialist should boost sales by roughly 36% in 2025. And just earlier this month, Plug Power received a $1.66 billion loan guarantee from the federal government to "help finance the construction of up to six facilities across several states that will produce clean hydrogen utilizing the company's own electrolyzer technology."

In many ways, things are looking up for the company. But the share price tells another story. Over the past year, shares have lost around 25% of their value. The past few weeks have been particularly difficult, as the stock price has fallen well under the $3 mark.

Is now the time to be contrarian and buy this embattled stock that's expected to have a rosy year ahead financially?

Three things every Plug Power investor should know

The first thing to understand is that the company's recent loan guarantee -- critical funding that will help it expand its hydrogen fuel system footprint -- was issued under the departing Biden administration. It's not clear that this loan guarantee will be continued by the new Trump administration.

The reason this is so critical is that Plug Power's business is very capital intensive. The company designs and manufactures equipment that contribute to facilities that cost hundreds of millions of dollars. This reality, and the fact that hydrogen fuel systems -- Plug Power's main technological focus -- still aren't cost competitive with fossil fuel alternatives, have produced consistent losses for the company, which management has backstopped using government funding and repeated stock sales.

So there are the first two things to be very mindful of now. Plug Power's recent loan guarantee win is far from guaranteed, yet the business will remain heavily reliant on such programs to stay financially viable.

The final thing to note is that, according to most experts, Plug Power's primary industry -- hydrogen power -- likely won't be cost competitive with alternatives for years, if not decades. From 2020 to 2030, for instance, McKinsey & Company projects total hydrogen demand to rise by just 40%. That's a compound annual growth rate of less than 5%. Most of hydrogen's demand growth, the firm believes, won't be realized for another decade, maybe two.

All of this is bad news for a company that has generated billions in losses over recent years. Over the past 12 months, the company has generated negative free cash flow of $1.3 billion, all while continuing to heavily dilute shareholders.

Over the last five days, however, Plug Power shares have lost another 30% of their value. Could the valuation finally be worth taking a risk on this struggling company?

PLUG Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts

This is my strategy for Plug Power stock

Some businesses aren't worth an investment at any price. For me, Plug Power meets this threshold. Will hydrogen be a mainstay in our future global economy? Due to "difficult to decarbonize" sectors like asphalt and concrete production, it's likely we'll see gradually growing demand for the fuel source. But any sizable demand growth won't occur this year, or even perhaps this decade. That's a problem for Plug Power considering it's generating massive losses today.

Even if the company boosts its sales by 36%, that won't be nearly enough to turn the company profitable. Hydrogen is an exciting industry to watch, but I'd stay away as an investor, even at today's discounted price. There's just too much risk that the company won't survive long-term. And even if it does, it'll come at a heavy price, like massive shareholder dilution.