U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, but futures are still trading.
Coming off the best week for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 since the November election, futures for those two indexes were higher in Monday afternoon trading after Donald Trump took office earlier in the day. Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.4% each. Trump won the presidential election with promises of tax cuts and lighter regulation, which gave stocks an extra boost at the end of the year.
The U.S. dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a basket of peers, fell 1% after a Wall Street Journal report said the new president won't impose tariffs on his first day. In his inauguration address, Trump made little mention of tariffs. Even if tariffs aren't announced today, they are likely on the way.
FTSE China A50 Index futures are up 1%.
Trump has promised dozens of executive orders on his first day, touching on everything from immigration to trade to delaying the implementation of the ban on social media site TikTok.
For now, futures trading indicates the impressive stock rally that has lifted the S&P 500 by 24% over the past 12 months will be extended when U.S. markets open on Tuesday.
The question is whether the rally will last, especially as earnings come. Netflix is this week's highlight and last week's bank earnings provided some optimism.
On the other hand, Trump brings some uncertainty to markets, especially when it comes to his plans to ramp up tariffs on imports, which could spark a trade war.
"Market volatility is set to pick up as Trump 2.0 begins, but we think the macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable for financial markets," said Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. "The solid U.S. economy bodes well for corporate profits, the Fed remains on an easing path, and AI investment and monetization should continue to lead growth. We rate U.S. equities and quality bonds as Attractive."
Another positive sign for stocks: Bond yields fell markedly last week. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield finished the week at 4.6% after trading around 4.8% on Tuesday. The two-year note yield ended the week at 4.3%. Higher bond yields are bad for stocks because they make bonds more attractive compared with shares.
Separately, oil prices dropped 1.3% after a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas took effect. That reduces the chances of an escalation of armed conflict in the Middle East, home to much of the world's oil production.
Japan's Nikkei index finished Monday 1.2% higher, and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong rose 1.8%. Germany's DAX closed 0.6% higher, while the U.K. FTSE 100 climbed 0.2%.
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