What Happened?

Shares of discount retail company Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ:OLLI) jumped 8% in the afternoon session after JP Morgan added the company to its Focus List as it sees an "upside opportunity." The firm added, "4Q Upside Opportunity Despite Disruption: Based on our latest fieldwork, we see potential for incremental upside to our +3.0% 4Q comp estimate relative to mgmt's implied 2.5%-3.5% guidance."

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What The Market Is Telling Us

Ollie’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 11 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business. 

The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was about a month ago when the stock gained 13.1% on the news that the company delivered impressive third-quarter results, surpassing analysts' expectations for operating profit and exceeding Wall Street's gross margin estimates. Revenue was in line, and the company reconfirmed its full-year revenue guidance. These results highlight Ollie's progress as it continued to grow its market share by opening new stores. Overall, this was a strong quarter for the company.

Ollie's is down 3.1% since the beginning of the year, and at $104.90 per share, it is trading 12.4% below its 52-week high of $119.80 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Ollie’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,920.

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