It's been a mediocre week for Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) shareholders, with the stock dropping 17% to US$186 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Constellation Brands missed revenue estimates by 2.8%, coming in atUS$2.5b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.39 beat expectations, coming in 2.6% ahead of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Constellation Brands after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Constellation Brands

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Constellation Brands from 21 analysts is for revenues of US$10.7b in 2026. If met, it would imply a reasonable 5.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 284% to US$14.58. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$11.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$15.05 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 13% to US$250, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Constellation Brands, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$300 and the most bearish at US$190 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Constellation Brands'historical trends, as the 4.0% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 4.9% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.2% per year. So although Constellation Brands is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Constellation Brands analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with Constellation Brands , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.