Dropbox’s DBX shares have gained 40% in the trailing six months, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s return of 8.3% and the Zacks Internet Services’ appreciation of 12.1%. 

Dropbox’s expanding AI-powered product portfolio has been a key catalyst in driving up the paid user base. Its strategy of leveraging AI to develop products that organize all cloud content on a single platform is a positive.

DBX exited the third quarter of 2024 with 18.24 million paying users, marking sequential growth of roughly 19,000. Paying user count for the reported quarter includes roughly 23,000 paying users through its acquisition of Reclaim.

Six-Month Performance

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Dropbox’s offerings that help in effective team collaboration have been driving business user growth.

Innovation & Strong Partner Base Aid Prospects

DBX is a leader in the content sharing and collaboration applications category, currently worth $12 billion, per IDC estimates. DBX currently supports more than 700 million registered users through its File Sync and Share plans and has better market share than Apple AAPL and Box BOX.

Per IDC’s May 2024 report, Dropbox enjoys a market share of 20.9%, followed by Google’s 16.4% share and Box’s 8.8%, while Apple has an 8.6% market share. Microsoft MSFT, with a 29.4% market share, was placed at #1 by IDC.

Dropbox is benefiting from an innovative portfolio and strong partner base that includes the likes of Google, Slack, Adobe, Atlassian, Zoom, Microsoft, Salesforce and NVIDIA.

Dropbox’s product offerings, like Dropbox Dash and Dropbox AI, have been gaining strong adoption. Dropbox Dash allows users to quickly find everything in one place, including content pulled from Microsoft Outlook, Google Workspace or Asana. 

Dash’s enhancements improve search functionality and help customers get answers much faster. The solution is capable of searching by keywords and semantic search, which provides more contextually relevant search results.

The launch of Dropbox Dash for business users in October is a noteworthy development. This is expected to boost clientele.

DBX has added new security, organization and sharing features, as well as real-time co-authoring integrations with Microsoft 365. Microsoft Copilot Integration now gives users the ability to query their Dropbox files directly from within Microsoft Teams. The latest security update offers an advanced data protection feature that adds an extra layer of protection. 

Dropbox has updated its other notable solutions, including DocSend and Replay. In April, it added features like Advanced Data Room (share multiple data files with a single link), viewing permission, user verification and built-in NDAs in DocSend. Replay integrations with Adobe After Effects, Apple Final Cut Pro and Avid Pro Tools are now available for users. 

Dropbox’s collaboration with NVIDIA expands its extensive AI functionality with new uses for personalized generative AI. This improves search accuracy, provides better organization and simplifies workflows for its customers across its cloud content. DBX leverages NVIDIA’s AI foundry to enhance its latest AI-powered products, including Dropbox Dash and Dropbox AI.

Dropbox’s Outlook Strong

DBX offered positive guidance for 2024, expecting both gross and operating margins to rise on a narrower revenue base.

Revenues are expected between $2.542 billion and $2.545 billion (compared with previous guidance of $2.540-$2.550 billion). At constant currency, revenues are expected between $2.538 billion and $2.541 billion (compared with previous guidance of $2.537-$2.547 billion).

Dropbox expects gross margin to be 84% (up from the previous guidance range of 83-83.5%) for the full year. An increase in the youthful life of its servers from four to five years is expected to benefit gross profit by $30 million.

Non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be roughly 36% (up from the previous guidance range of 33.5-34%). Higher savings driven by a reduction in force is expected to boost operating profit.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 revenues is pegged at $2.54 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 1.66%. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $2.39 per share, up 7.7% over the past 60 days and indicates 20.71% growth over 2023’s reported figure.
 

The company expects gross margin to be in the 83-83.5% range for the full year. Non-GAAP operating margin is expected in the 32.5-33% range.

Dropbox expects free cash flow between $860 million and $875 million for 2024. Strong liquidity is helping Dropbox pursue shareholder-friendly activity. At the end of the third quarter of 2024, Dropbox had $519 million remaining under its current share repurchase authorization.

For 2025, DBX expects non-GAAP operating margin to expand roughly 150 basis points relative to 2024 based on flat constant currency growth in revenues. It expects free cash flow to be at or above $950 million.

Here’s Why Dropbox is a Buy

Dropbox is trading at a premium, as suggested by the Value Score of C.

In terms of the forward 12-month Price/Earnings, DBX is trading at 11.22X, higher than the sector’s 27.74X.

Price/Earnings (F12M)

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DBX shares are trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend.

DBX Trades Above 50-day & 200-day SMA

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Dropbox’s strong portfolio, which leverages AI and a rich partner base, is positive and justifies a premium valuation.

Dropbox currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and a Growth Score of B, a favorable combination that offers a strong investment opportunity, per the Zacks Proprietary methodology. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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