Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. OLLI is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Dec. 10 before the opening bell. Analysts anticipate an impressive performance, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues at $518.6 million, indicating an 8% increase compared to the prior-year quarter.

The extreme-value retailer of brand-name merchandise is also anticipated to deliver bottom-line growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share has remained steady at 57 cents over the past 30 days, which implies year-over-year growth of 11.8%.

Ollie's Bargain has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.9%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Harrisburg, PA-based company’s bottom line came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

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Key Factors Driving OLLI’s Q3 Performance

Ollie's Bargain’s business operating model of “buying cheap and selling cheap,” cost-containment efforts, focus on store productivity and the expansion of the customer loyalty program, Ollie's Army, are likely to have contributed to the top-line performance. Ollie's Army continued to be a major sales driver, with membership increasing continuously. The company ended the second quarter of fiscal 2024 with 14.5 million active Ollie's Army members, accounting for more than 80% of sales.

The company’s disciplined approach to inventory management and ability to source desirable products from closeouts and overstocks ensure that stores remain well-stocked with items that meet customer demand. This adaptability enhances the in-store shopping experience, encouraging higher foot traffic and repeat visits. 

Moreover, Ollie’s ongoing store expansion strategy continues to drive incremental revenues by broadening its reach to new markets. The strategic acquisition of "99 Cents Only" stores and leases for 15 former Big Lots locations highlight Ollie’s ability to seize growth opportunities.

While the aforementioned factors raise optimism about the outcome, margins remain an area to watch. Any deleverage in SG&A expenses due to higher marketing and advertising expenses, occupancy costs for stores and other general expenses may have a direct bearing on margins. We expect SG&A expenses to increase 8.4% year over year for the quarter under discussion.

What Zacks Model Predicts About OLLI

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Ollie's Bargain this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Ollie's Bargain has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of -3.27%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

US Foods Holding USFD has an Earnings ESP of +0.15% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. USFD’s top line is anticipated to advance year over year when it reports fourth-quarter 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $9.47 billion, which suggests a 6% rise from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The company is expected to register an increase in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for US Foods Holding’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 80 cents per share, up 25% from the year-ago quarter. USFD has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 0.4%, on average.

Grocery Outlet Holding GO currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.25% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register a decrease in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 17 cents, down 5.6% from the year-ago period.

Grocery Outlet's top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.09 billion, which suggests an increase of 9.7% from the prior-year quarter. GO has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 2.2%, on average.

B&G Foods BGS has an Earnings ESP of +3.13% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. BGS’s top line is anticipated to decline year over year when it reports fourth-quarter 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $558.7 million, which suggests a 3.4% fall from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The company is expected to register an increase in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for B&G Foods’ fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 32 cents a share, up 6.7% from the year-ago quarter. BGS has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 9.5%, on average.

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