Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks' without any revenue, let alone profit. But the reality is that when a company loses money each year, for long enough, its investors will usually take their share of those losses. Loss making companies can act like a sponge for capital - so investors should be cautious that they're not throwing good money after bad.
In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD), which has not only revenues, but also profits. While this doesn't necessarily speak to whether it's undervalued, the profitability of the business is enough to warrant some appreciation - especially if its growing.
View our latest analysis for Blue Bird
Investors and investment funds chase profits, and that means share prices tend rise with positive earnings per share (EPS) outcomes. So for many budding investors, improving EPS is considered a good sign. It's an outstanding feat for Blue Bird to have grown EPS from US$0.71 to US$3.27 in just one year. Even though that growth rate may not be repeated, that looks like a breakout improvement. This could point to the business hitting a point of inflection.
Top-line growth is a great indicator that growth is sustainable, and combined with a high earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margin, it's a great way for a company to maintain a competitive advantage in the market. The music to the ears of Blue Bird shareholders is that EBIT margins have grown from 4.5% to 10% in the last 12 months and revenues are on an upwards trend as well. Ticking those two boxes is a good sign of growth, in our book.
The chart below shows how the company's bottom and top lines have progressed over time. Click on the chart to see the exact numbers.
The trick, as an investor, is to find companies that are going to perform well in the future, not just in the past. While crystal balls don't exist, you can check our visualization of consensus analyst forecasts for Blue Bird's future EPS 100% free.
It's a good habit to check into a company's remuneration policies to ensure that the CEO and management team aren't putting their own interests before that of the shareholder with excessive salary packages. For companies with market capitalisations between US$1.0b and US$3.2b, like Blue Bird, the median CEO pay is around US$5.6m.
The Blue Bird CEO received US$4.5m in compensation for the year ending September 2023. That seems pretty reasonable, especially given it's below the median for similar sized companies. CEO remuneration levels are not the most important metric for investors, but when the pay is modest, that does support enhanced alignment between the CEO and the ordinary shareholders. It can also be a sign of good governance, more generally.
Blue Bird's earnings per share have been soaring, with growth rates sky high. Such fast EPS growth prompts the question: has the business reached an inflection point? Meanwhile, the very reasonable CEO pay is a great reassurance, since it points to an absence of wasteful spending habits. It will definitely require further research to be sure, but it does seem that Blue Bird has the hallmarks of a quality business; and that would make it well worth watching. Of course, just because Blue Bird is growing does not mean it is undervalued. If you're wondering about the valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
There's always the possibility of doing well buying stocks that are not growing earnings and do not have insiders buying shares. But for those who consider these important metrics, we encourage you to check out companies that do have those features. You can access a tailored list of companies which have demonstrated growth backed by significant insider holdings.
Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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