MW Morgan Stanley finally turns bullish on U.S. stocks as it says the S&P 500 could jump as high as 7,400

By Steve Goldstein

Wall Street firm expect the recent broadening in earnings growth to continue in 2025

It's been a great two years in the stock market, with the S&P 500 following last year's 24% gain with, so far, another 23% appreciation.

Perhaps better late than never, Morgan Stanley has jumped on board the U.S. train - moving its rating on U.S. stocks to overweight, and targeting 6,500 at the end of 2025, compared to a June 2025 target of 5,400.

In fact, its new base target is above its previous "bull" scenario, which was 6,350. Now it says the S&P could jump as high as 7,400 next year.

Why the change of heart? Well, the firm still says valuations are richer than they used to be. "Valuations should be richer than six months ago because markets have grown more certain that fundamentals are good. And valuations can be richer in six months' time when investors see that fundamentals are sustained by solid macro," the firm said in its 2025 outlook.

U.S. exceptionalism will continue, the firm argued. The multiple on 12 months forward earnings will contract slightly, to 21.5 from 22.2, but remain at a premium to the 10-year average. "Our work shows that it's rare to see significant multiple compression in periods of above-average earnings growth and accommodative monetary policy," they said.

They expect 13% earnings per share growth in 2025 and another 12% gain for 2026. "We expect the recent broadening in earnings growth to continue in 2025 as the Fed cuts rates into next year and business cycle indicators continue to improve. A potential rise in corporate animal spirits post the election (as we saw following the 2016 election) could catalyze a more balanced earnings profile across the market in 2025," according to the U.S. team, led by Mike Wilson.

It was interesting to read the firm's take on the Department of Government Efficiency and its leaders, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.

"While many are skeptical they will be able to actually cut spending via efficiency efforts, we think it makes sense to take a more open-minded approach given the individuals involved and the fact that this seems to be a focal point for Trump in his second term," they said. "With the jury very much out on the ultimate outcome, we think term premium will tell the tale of how the bond market is thinking about this issue," they said, referring to the excess return investors require for taking on interest-rate risk.

Morgan Stanley is also bullish toward Japanese equities, while the firm lowered its rating on European stocks to neutral on tariff risks and the region's exposure to China. Trade tensions make emerging-markets EEM stocks its least favorite market.

The firm expects the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y to fall to 3.55%, down from its previous call of 3.75%, as they expect more Fed rate cuts than the market has priced in. They target $66 per barrel for Brent (BRN00) due to supply growth from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries, and they say gold (GC00) upside is limited as they target $2,600 an ounce by the end of 2025.

The market

U.S. stock futures (ES00) (NQ00) were mixed after the worst week for the S&P 500 in two months. Gold (GC00) rose, and Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y increased.

   Key asset performance                                                Last       5d      1m      YTD     1y 
   S&P 500                                                              5870.62    -2.08%  0.10%   23.08%  30.05% 
   Nasdaq Composite                                                     18,680.12  -3.15%  1.03%   24.44%  32.24% 
   10-year Treasury                                                     4.467      15.70   26.10   58.61   4.52 
   Gold                                                                 2597       -1.11%  -5.03%  25.35%  31.15% 
   Oil                                                                  67.49      -0.97%  -3.28%  -5.38%  -13.02% 
   Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points 

The buzz

Tesla's stock $(TSLA)$ jumped as Bloomberg News reported that a framework for self-driving cars is a priority for Trump.

Marc Rowan, Robert Lighthizer and Kevin Warsh are in the running to become Treasury secretary, along with previous front-runners Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick, according to reports in the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times.

Nvidia stock $(NVDA)$ was lower on a report in The Information of more supply issues with the new Blackwell chip.

Netflix $(NFLX)$ will be in the spotlight after a highly watched but glitchy Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight.

Super Micro Computer $(SMCI)$ intends to submit a plan to keep it in compliance with Nasdaq rules, Barron's reported.

Spirit Airlines $(SAVE.AU)$ filed for bankruptcy protection.

President Biden lifted restrictions on Ukraine using U.S. weapons to hit inside Russia.

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The chart

Get ready for state-level payrolls. Usually ignored, the Labor Department's report due Tuesday on state-by-state payrolls data will be able to show how much of October's weakness was linked to hurricanes and how much was due to underlying labor-market conditions, according to Steve Englander, Standard Chartered's head of North America macro strategy. "This time, we think investors may pay attention if it provides a clear signal from non-affected states, especially after downward revisions in previous months," he said.

Top tickers

Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

   Ticker  Security name 
   TSLA    Tesla 
   NVDA    Nvidia 
   GME     GameStop 
   SMCI    Super Micro Computer 
   PLTR    Palantir Technologies 
   TSM     Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 
   MSTR    MicroStrategy 
   DJT     Trump Media & Technology 
   AAPL    Apple 
   AMZN    Amazon.com 

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-Steve Goldstein

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November 18, 2024 08:30 ET (13:30 GMT)

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