Arm Holdings plc (NASDAQ:ARM) announced strong profits, but the stock was stagnant. Our analysis suggests that shareholders have noticed something concerning in the numbers.

View our latest analysis for Arm Holdings

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

For anyone who wants to understand Arm Holdings' profit beyond the statutory numbers, it's important to note that during the last twelve months statutory profit gained from US$35m worth of unusual items. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If Arm Holdings doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

An Unusual Tax Situation

Just as we noted the unusual items, we must inform you that Arm Holdings received a tax benefit which contributed US$129m to the bottom line. This is of course a bit out of the ordinary, given it is more common for companies to be paying tax than receiving tax benefits! The receipt of a tax benefit is obviously a good thing, on its own. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth. So while we think it's great to receive a tax benefit, it does tend to imply an increased risk that the statutory profit overstates the sustainable earnings power of the business.

Our Take On Arm Holdings' Profit Performance

In the last year Arm Holdings received a tax benefit, which boosted its profit in a way that might not be much more sustainable than turning prime farmland into gas fields. And on top of that, it also saw an unusual item boost its profit, suggesting that next year might see a lower profit number, if these events are not repeated. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Arm Holdings' statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Arm Holdings at this point in time. While conducting our analysis, we found that Arm Holdings has 1 warning sign and it would be unwise to ignore this.

Our examination of Arm Holdings has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.