It's shaping up to be a tough period for LanzaTech Global, Inc. (NASDAQ:LNZA), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 45% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of US$0.29. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for LanzaTech Global

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from LanzaTech Global's four analysts is for revenues of US$136.0m in 2025. This would reflect a substantial 134% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 52% to US$0.32. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$177.4m and losses of US$0.22 per share in 2025. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

The average price target fell 11% to US$4.19, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for LanzaTech Global's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on LanzaTech Global, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$6.00 and the most bearish at US$2.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting LanzaTech Global's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 98% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 33% per annum over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that LanzaTech Global is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of LanzaTech Global's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for LanzaTech Global going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for LanzaTech Global that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.