Shareholders might have noticed that Blade Air Mobility, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLDE) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.3% to US$3.42 in the past week. Revenues of US$75m arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.03, an impressive 38% smaller than what broker models predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Blade Air Mobility

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Blade Air Mobility's five analysts is for revenues of US$264.8m in 2025. This would reflect a solid 9.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 70% to US$0.20. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$275.6m and US$0.34 per share in losses. While the revenue estimates fell, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts making a very promising decrease in losses per share in particular.

There was no major change to the US$7.38average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Blade Air Mobility at US$13.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$5.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Blade Air Mobility's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 46% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Blade Air Mobility is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Blade Air Mobility analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Blade Air Mobility is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.