It's been a good week for Dropbox, Inc. (NASDAQ:DBX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.1% to US$27.04. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$639m were what the analysts expected, Dropbox surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.34 per share, an impressive 24% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Dropbox

Taking into account the latest results, Dropbox's ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$2.58b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to drop 16% to US$1.48 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.60b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.40 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Dropbox's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$26.88, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Dropbox at US$32.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$20.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Dropbox's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 9.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Dropbox.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Dropbox following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Dropbox's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Dropbox. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Dropbox going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Dropbox you should be aware of, and 2 of them make us uncomfortable.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.