Radian Group Inc. (NYSE:RDN) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$334m arriving 2.4% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$0.99, 6.0% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Radian Group

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Radian Group's five analysts is for revenues of US$1.34b in 2025. This reflects a modest 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 5.3% to US$3.81 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.75 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$35.93, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Radian Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$41.00 and the most bearish at US$32.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Radian Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. For example, we noticed that Radian Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 2.5% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 4.6% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.0% per year. So although Radian Group's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Radian Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Radian Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Radian Group (1 is a bit concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.